Week 9: Games to Watch

First off, sorry for the late post.  However, it is kind of fun to write this as I watch College Gameday.  It is definitely one of the best shows on television – top notch producing by Lee Fitting, Chris Fowler is a genius and the crew plays well together.  Truly a joy to watch.  A little bit of crazy, mixed with some knowledge bombs every now and then.

Well, what did I tell you?  Upsets start flooding down between mid-October and the end of November.  Week 7 provided five top 25 upsets, Week 8 topped that with eight top 25 upsets.  The polls have more ups and downs in the last 2 weeks than a teenage girl.  What will this weekend have in store?  The slate of games to watch includes four battles between ranked teams.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/26/2013	2:30 PM	10	Texas Tech	v.	15	Oklahoma	FOX	Oklahoma
	6:00 PM	12	UCLA	v.	3	Oregon	ESPN	Oregon
	6:00 PM	21	South Carolina	v.	5	Missouri	ESPN2	Missouri
	7:00 PM		Penn State	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	9:30 PM	6	Stanford	v.	25	Oregon State	ESPN	Stanford
Other Notables:
	6:30 PM		Texas	v.		TCU	FS1
			Florida				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• Louisville – how sad is that that they couldn’t run the table in the AAC?  #weaksauce
• Missouri – Gary Pinkel deserves a major tip of the cap (or should I say visor).  His team has won each game by 15 points or more.  They are completely in control of the SEC east.  Who would have ever thought that heading into this season?  Sure the typical east contenders (UGA, UF) have been decimated with injuries, but Mizzou has looked good in each contest.  Good luck with Bama in ATL.
• Alabama – speaking of… they seem to be hitting their stride.  Yikes!  #nuffsaid
• Florida State – as hard as it is for me to say this, WOW!  This team looks great and Jameis Winston is the real deal.  They made Clemson look stupid in their own backyard.  Will a rather soft schedule come back to haunt FSU down the stretch in the battle for the #2 spot in the BCS?  Or is the bigger question, can FSU avoid a late season stumble?  FSU and clutch hasn’t been in the same sentence since the 90’s.  This team looks different though.

I went 3-3 on my week 8 picks.  Dropping my pick percentage slightly for the season to 74%.

Week 8 BCS Ranking Thoughts:

• The initial rankings are out in the final season under the BCS.  It only seems fitting that the final year of the BCS could end in catastrophe (i.e. multiple undefeated teams from major conferences).  Below I’ll give quick thoughts on the initial Top 10 BCS teams.
• #1 Bama – is anyone surprised?  The Saban Way is in full stride as they are seeking 3 in a row.
• #2 FSU – this is the “surprise” of the initial rankings as they jumped Oregon from the human polls.  Obviously to this point they have looked the part.  Odds are that if they win out and Oregon wins out, Oregon coming from arguably the toughest conference this year, that Oregon will jump them for the coveted #2 spot.  This seems to be the perfect year to have the 4 team playoff… well the desire for that will only make the wait for next year that much greater.  The playoff can’t seem to get here soon enough.
• #3 Oregon – see above.  They shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they take care of their schedule, albeit a tough schedule.
• #4 Ohio State – I’m not overly impressed with this team.  The Big 10 just seems so soft and has shown that over the last few years in the BCS games.
• #5 Missouri – the other “surprise” here.  If they take care of the schedule, including a meeting with #1 Bama in ATL they they will be playing for the title.  This team looks good, but getting past Bama seems a tall task.
• #6 Stanford – this is the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Speaks to the strength of the Pac-12 as they are ranked ahead of 3 undefeated teams.
• #7 Miami – one of the biggest remaining games in the regular season is next weekend against #2 FSU.  Still think that the relative weakness of the ACC will cause the winner of this game to be looking just on the outside of the coveted #2 spot in the BCS.
• #8 Baylor – this may be the team to watch in the final weeks.  If they can win out, a big IF.  The schedule rises significantly in strength each week.  However if they win out, I think you will hear big screams from Waco as they will likely also be on the outside looking in.  This team could be one of three teams (FSU, OSU and BU) that can’t crack the top 2.
• #9 Clemson – doesn’t look so shiny after getting embarrassed last weekend by #2 FSU.
• #10 Texas Tech – the right mix has happened for this team to crack the initial top 10: pretty coach (see: Ryan Gosling), easy opening schedule (only played one team so far with a winning record – Texas State) and 13 teams over the last two weekends that have been upset.  Sitting in the same situation as #8 Baylor.  Plenty of big IFs remaining (starting today in Norman), I don’t see this holding up.  It is great fun for the Red Raiders with their first year HC, although it seems a little shallow to this point.

Games to Watch – Previews:

From a national championship perspective (which is what every body cares about right?), there is only one game that has big implications directly on the top of the BCS rankings this weekend:

• #12 UCLA v. #3 Oregon – College Gameday is on site.  The line for this game out of Vega is 24.  The largest line for the Games to Watch this weekend.  I don’t see this one being close, as Oregon has only seemed to get better each week.  However, if UCLA can pull off the major upset… then the BCS chaos will get really fun.  (Pick: ORE by 21)
• #21 South Carolina v. #5 Missouri – This is perhaps the most intriguing game this weekend.  Can Missouri effectively win the SEC East this early in the season?  They were picked to be at best 4th in the East and are now on the verge of putting a fork in it.  If South Carolina QB – Connor Shaw plays, this game could come down to the wire.  If not, I think Missouri wins this East.  (Pick: Mizz by 7)
• #10 Texas Tech v. #15 Oklahoma – The last time Texas Tech came to Norman undefeated, Red Raider fans would like to forget.  Tech came in at #2 in the BCS and then #5 OU demolished them 65 – 21.  Can the fate change here?  There is no way this game reaches that level of scoring by OU.  OU is still searching for passing consistency with Blake Bell.  This game will be a close one and very fun to watch.  (Pick: OU by 3)
• #6 Stanford v. #25 Oregon State – Sean Mannion from Oregon State is flying under the radar as he leads the country in passing.  After Oregon State opened the season embarrassingly by losing to FCS Eastern Washington (remember when the FCS showed out against the FBS in week 1?), they have reeled off 6 straight with Mannion passing all over each opponent.  However, this Stanford D is solid at each level.  David Shaw and his bunch will be ready for this one.  I have to admit, the Pac-12 has become fun to watch.  Several years ago I didn’t find that to be the case (exception being USC – is it just me or is Oregon the new USC in the Pac-12?).  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• Penn State v. #4 Ohio State – the Big 10 has become such a lackluster conference in my opinion.  The Big 10 has effectively flipped positions with the Pac-12, two teams at the top and weakness the rest of the way through the conference.  That is how I view the Big 10 now and used to view the Pac-12 a few years ago.  Either way, Penn State is well coached but loses the talent edge here.  You can’t sleep on this Penn State squad ever, they are fighters.  I hope Penn State wins, but I think the Buckeyes will win with talent.  (Pick: OSU by 14)

Which ranked team is going to lose today?  It is inevitable.  #letsgo

One quick video.  This catch from Marquez North, a true-freshman, was one of the best I’ve ever seen.  Tennessee was down by 1 and needed a FG to win.  This catch put them into FG range and the Volunteers got their first big win in what seems like a decade.  This kid will be a monster receiver for the next few years in the SEC.  As a Gator, I hate to admit… but this was one heck of a catch:

Week 7: Games to Watch

Hey, hey!  I’m back in the USA.  And, we have another great college football weekend on the way.  There are three top 25 match-ups and two other intriguing games to keep an eye on.  This is the time of year that the cream starts to rise!  Who will it be?

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/12/2013	11:00 AM	12	Oklahoma	v.		Texas	ABC	Oklahoma
	11:00 AM	25	Missouri	v.	7	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:30 PM	17	Florida	v.	10	LSU	CBS	LSU
	3:00 PM	2	Oregon	v.	16	Washington	FS1	Oregon
	7:30 PM	9	Texas A&M	v.		Ole Miss	ESPN	Texas A&M
Other Notables:
10/12/2013	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	20	Texas Tech	FS1

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

I haven’t watched any college football games for 2 weekends.  So I’ll pass on “wrap-up” for this post.  Instead I’ll add some ramblings I have in my mind simply from headlines, scores over the last 2 weekends.

• Mack Brown – UT Head Coach: Will this be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry?  Talk is that if the Longhorns lose tomorrow, he will announce his impending “retirement” in the next few weeks.
• Lane Kiffin – former USC Head Coach: the Head Coach who has done nothing in every HC job he has held.  He actually has made USC somewhat irrelevant.  That in itself is rather impressive.  Just a few short years back, USC got any recruit west of the Rockies that they wanted.  Talent in abundance and 10+ win seasons were the norm.  Now, well they have become an afterthought in the Pac-12 – Oregon, Stanford, Washington.
• Tyler Murphy – UF Starting Quarterback: I know it is only 2.75 games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, but his average QBR for those games is 94.3.  That ranks him 4th nationally, behind the likes of Bryce Petty (Baylor), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Aaron Murray (Georgia).  He has been efficient and avoided turnovers, sounds like the perfect QB for a team with the best defense in the country.  His play on the road tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be the decisive point in this game.
• Baylor Bears – this offense has looked video game like.  Wow!  The Bears now have the 3rd best odds according to Vegas to win the National Championship.  Who would have ever thought that we’d see that?  Two things to keep in mind: (1) those odds reflect the fact that the Big 12 is really down this year, thus the likelihood they make it through the regular season undefeated is higher than other teams in competitive conferences and (2) so far Baylor has played a strength of schedule north of 120+, their remaining schedule is south of 25-.  The tests are coming, even if they are from a down Big 12.

I went 6-0 on my week 6 picks.  On a nice little roll, that is sure to come crashing down shortly.  My picks are now sitting at 82% for the season.

Week 6 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Summary for the last 2 weeks is that there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, particularly in the top 15.  No big upsets have happened, etc.  Expect the cream to start to rise in the coming weeks.  The BCS comes out after this weekend of play.  We’ll have some ranking news to talk about next week.

Games to Watch – Previews:

Three big SEC matches, along with one big game each from the Big 12 and the Pac-12.  The weekend is packed with some really intriguing games to watch:

• #12 Oklahoma v. Texas – storyline here seems to be whether or not this will be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas has lost the last 3 by an average of 30+ PPG and has lost 9 of the last 13 in the series.  Another loss in this series tomorrow and you very well may see Mack announce his “retirement” in the coming weeks.  Either way this game is always fun to watch.  Major rivalry that always seems to have that special feel.  (Pick: Oklahoma by 14+)
• #25 Missouri v. #7 Georgia – I think this game will be closer than many might think on the surface.  Missouri has flown under the radar so far this year.  Georgia has plenty of O, but needs some D.  Can Missouri finally get a big win in the SEC?  Georgia needs this game to keep the reigns in the SEC East.  (Pick: Georgia by 6-7)
• #17 Florida v. #10 LSU – LSU has a stellar O this year (#6 nationally), loaded with NFL talent at each position group – a reversal from last year.  UF has a stellar D as always (#1 nationally).  Things to watch: (1) Tyler Murphy – can he stay cool in his first big road start? (2) Gators run D – has still looked good, but seems to be a little more susceptible now that Easley is lost for the year. (3) Tigers run O – can they move the ball on the ground against the Gators D-Line?  They need to stay on schedule so that Mettenberger doesn’t have to throw into the vaunted Gator secondary too much.  (Pick: LSU by 3)
• #2 Oregon v. #16 Washington – the line on this game has grown to near -14 for Oregon.  I like this Washington team, they are scrappy and play well under Sarkisan.  I expect this game to be closer to a 7 point game.  Anytime you get close to that 1 possession line then anything can happen.  (Pick: Oregon by 7)
• #9 Texas A&M v. Ole Miss – Ole Miss is young and super talented.  Can they put together a defining win for this highly regarded freshman class?  Last year in Oxford they took A&M down to the wire, A&M winning by 3.  I expect a similar game this year.  Ole Miss is better this year, A&M is about the same as last year.  Should be a lot of points on the board.  (Pick: Texas A&M by 7)

Oh boy!  College football makes me happy, happy, happy (Duck Dynasty reference – see video below if you don’t already know).

Week 3: Games to Watch

There is a rather big game in College Station this weekend.  You may have heard something about it?  This week we have a solid Thursday night game and then Saturday features the most hyped September game that we have seen for some time.  I am baking some wings and propping my feet up for the big game in College Station.  See below for detailed previews of the games to watch

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/12/2013	6:30 PM	24	TCU	v.		Texas Tech	ESPN	Texas Tech
9/14/2013	11:00 AM	16	UCLA	v.	23	Nebraska	ABC	Nebraska
	2:30 PM	1	Alabama	v.	6	Texas A&M	CBS	Alabama
	7:00 PM	25	Ole Miss	v.		Texas	LHN	Ole Miss
Other notables:
9/14/2013		18	Florida				BYE

Last weekend wrap-up:

• I’ll lead on a positive note.  Which teams have impressed me the most through 2 weeks?  I’d have to say Oregon and Clemson.  Oregon hasn’t missed a beat under new HC Mark Helfrich.  Chip Kelly left a full cupboard and the new HC has kept this team on track.  Big time showdown late in the season against Stanford.  Clemson opened the season with a solid W against Georgia and seems to be clicking on all cylinders.  I am not saying these are the two best teams, just the most impressive through 2 weeks.  A close 3rd would have to be Baylor, Art Briles can coach ’em up.
• Speaking of Georgia, they had the toughest opening two weeks I can remember.  Both were top 10 opponents.  Props to Georgia for taking the challenge and fighting big early.  After a close loss last week, Georgia rebounded nicely and defeated #6 South Carolina.  Impressive bounce back.
• Flop #1 – Opponent Inflicted: UT got demolished by the ground game of BYU… yes you read that right.  BYU set a school record for rushing yards in a game w/ 550!!!  That is also the most a Texas defense has ever given up in it’s storied history.  The Texas D was the worst in school history last year and didn’t appear to be any better this year, which resulted in DC Manny Diaz getting fired after week 2.  That was an ugly game to watch for Longhorns fans.  Saturday in Austin it doesn’t get any better with a young Ole Miss team coming in to face a Texas team trying to get back on track w/ a new DC and the starting QB possibly out.  The word out of Austin is that “the succession plan” has been put into motion, meaning this should be Mack Brown’s last year as HC in Austin.  At year’s end Mack will “retire”.  The hunt for the next HC will be a fun one to watch.
• Flop #2 – Self Inflicted: If I told you a team (team #1) more than doubled up the other team in first downs at 22 to 10.  Team #1 was 6/15 on third down conversions while the other team converted just 1/11.  Team #1 had 413 yards of offense while the other team almost half at 212 yards, with just 69 yards gained total in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters.  Team #1 passed for 291 yards while the other 162 yards.  Team #1 QB completed 66% of his passes while the other team’s QB completed less than 50% (48%).  Team #1 averaged 8.8 per completion vs. 6.5 for the other team.  Team #1 rushed for 122 yards, while the other managed just 50 yards rushing for the day.  Team #1 controlled the entire game with the ball for 38:20 minutes the other team held the ball for just 21:40.  How many points would you tell me Team #1 dominated by?  Well that same team had 5 turnovers and was 2/6 in the red zone for only 10 points on those trips – the 4 failed trips ended with 3 TOs and a stopped on downs (4th and 1).  Team #1 lost by 5.  Team #1 would be my beloved Gators.  Dominated every facet of the game except the scoreboard, thanks to foolish turnovers and sloppy penalties.

I went 0-3 on my picks (yuck), now sitting at 56% for the early season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: Biggest mover this week is Miami moving up 11 spots in the AP, along with Michigan moving up 5 spots.  ND and South Carolina dropped the furthest, moving down 7 spots.  The two newest members of the AP poll are Miami after defeating my Gators and Ole Miss after a solid start to the season w/ plenty of freshman contributing early.
• Coaches Poll: Again the biggest mover here is Miami moving up 6 spots.  Florida dropped the further moving down 11 spots this week, after the disappointing defeat at Miami.  The two newest members of the Coaches poll are Ole Miss as seen in the AP poll and Baylor moving into the rankings after continuing to WOW with that offense.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We have 2 top 25 match-ups this weekend, but there is one big time game that everyone will be watching.

• #1 Alabama v. #6 Texas A&M – well this has to be the most hyped September game that I can remember for some time.  College Gameday is in town.  CBS will have a “Johnny Cam”.  Everyone is talking about it and has been since Texas A&M went into Tuscaloosa last year and escaped with a 5 point win.  This game has so many story lines so I won’t repeat them for you.  Whatever you do make sure you are in front of a TV at 2:30 on Saturday.  This one is big time football.  Alabama is coming to town for atonement.  Can Johnny keep up his magic on the field?  Can Saban’s troops get what they feel was taken from them last year?  I have a feeling their will be a collective “Roll Tide” echoing around College Station after the game on Saturday (remember Bama fans travel well).  I think the Crimson Tide will be on point and pull this out with a double digit victory.  I have many people who think that is crazy, but that is why you play the games on the field not in advanced statistical analysis.  According to Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings this is the nation’s #2 Offense vs. #2 Defense.  #gameon
• #24 TCU v. Texas Tech – a Thursday night Big 12 showdown in Lubbock.  Lubbock is no easy place to travel, much less on a week night.  This will be a fun game to watch.  Texas Tech is lead at QB by a walk-on true-freshman who has looked like anything but a walk-on so far – 780 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT thru 2 games.  TCU lost their starting QB again.  The backup has 9 career starts so he has experience.  Can Devonte Fields and the TCU D keep this close?  I think this game will come down to the last few minutes.
• #16 UCLA v. #23 Nebraska – an early season Pac 12 / Big 10 showdown.  Jim Mora is entering his second season at the helm for UCLA and looked to already be moving the program in the right direction last year.  Can they go on the road and win a tough early season contest?  Big questions to answer as Mora is building this program his way.  Which Nebraska team will show up on Saturday?  This team seems so erratic since Pelini took over at HC.  The vaunted Nebraska “Blackshirt” defenses are long in the rear view mirror.  Can this team defend their turf and repay UCLA for the defeat in week 2 last year when Nebraska traveled out west to LA?  A good 11am kickoff game for the viewing pleasure.
• #25 Ole Miss v. Texas – Texas will be hoping for the comforts of home after a brutal defeat in Provo, UT at the hands of BYU last week.  Can the Texas D get it together?  How will the firing of the DC affect this already reeling D?  Will David Ash (starting QB) play?  These are the questions facing Texas this week.  On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss comes to town with some very talented youngsters.  After the best recruiting haul that Ole Miss has ever seen last year, some of these true freshman are already making big time impacts for this team.  The arrows are trending up for this young team under HC Hugh Freeze.  Can they continue the trend up on the road against a perennial powerhouse – even if they are not quite up to their own standards right now?  Will be a fun game to throw on the tube after the big 2:30 match-up in College Station. (NOTE: I changed my pick for this game above, UT Starting QB David Ash is officially out for the game on Saturday.  Based on this, I am picking Ole Miss.  I already thought the game would be close, but this flips it for me)

Week 13: Games to Watch (Rivalry Weekend / Thanksgiving)

Thanksgiving is here.  Enjoy this time with your family and friends.  I hope each of you has a blessed day tomorrow and enjoys the weekend ahead with some incredible college football match-ups and some pretty good NFL games on tomorrow as well.

This weekend is rivalry weekend, by my count there are at least 16 legitimate rivalries that will be played this weekend.  Most of these are rivalries within state boundaries.  This will add plenty of excitement to an incredible weekend… probably the best weekend all year for college football fans to watch the tube.

Given that it is Thanksgiving weekend, I am going to add a little NFL flavor to this weeks post.  Just so everyone knows what football games are on to watch tomorrow amidst the turkey, dressing and many naps.

Last weekend wrap up:

All I can say is wow!  Two weekends in a row the #1 team in the country has gone down and this past weekend we had both #1 and #2 go down.  This is the 3rd time in the BCS Era (since 1997) that the top 2 teams have lost in the same weekend, it happened twice in 2007.  Notre Dame is now officially on upset watch as the new #1.  November is crazy!

• #1 Kansas State got absolutely owned by un-ranked Baylor down in Waco, to the tune of 4 TDs.  I was never a fan of Kansas State as a national title contender, I do have all the respect in the world for Bill Snyder.  However I just never was that impressed with their team.  So seeing them lose didn’t surprise me, but how they lost was what surprised me.
• #2 Oregon got beat in OT by the ever tough #13 Stanford Cardinals.  Stanford was able to contain the mighty Oregon offense to 14 points in regulation.  In OT, Oregon missed a field goal off of the upright and Stanford made their FG.  Game over!  What made all of this weekend so exciting was that #1 and #2 lost within minutes of each other.  It almost had a March Madness feeling to it, switching channels back and forth seeing if the two Goliaths were going to get beaten.  After Kansas State lost, ND was into the top 2.  After Oregon lost, Alabama rose back into the top 2.  I wasn’t liking the national title match-up last week, but love the current match-up if it holds – #1 ND v. #2 Alabama.  But, there is a lot of football to be played.
• #18 USC got handled pretty easily by #17 UCLA for the battle of LA.  UCLA cruised out to a 28 point lead and was able to hold the lead and finished out the W by 10 points.  Does this finally put the dagger in Kiffin?  This guy has done nothing at all of his coaching stops.  And, now he had the pre-season AP #1 and his team now has 4 losses.  The mighty Trojans are a long shot from the height of the Pete Carroll era, which seems like forever ago now.

By far my worst weekend yet, I went 1-4 on my picks.  I’m okay with this because I love college football and the crazy upsets that are inevitable.  This leaves me sitting at 67% so far on the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC leads the way gain with 6 ranked teams.  3 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 10.  Just an absolute dominance in the rankings.  With Alabama back in the top 2 – could the SEC make it 7 straight national titles?
• The Pac-12 also has 6 ranked teams, again they are spread all over the top 25.  The top team is now #5 Oregon, being book-ended by #25 Washington.  The median of the Pac-12 teams is a 16, versus the SEC median increasing to 5.5 this week.
• The Big 12 lost one ranked team this week, sliding back to 4 ranked teams.  Their lone jewel last week at #1, Kansas State is now #6 after a shellacking in Waco.
• The lone independent is now the #1 team in the country.  The #1 Notre Dame fighting Irish are leading the pack and one win away from a trip to Miami.  This is the first time Notre Dame has been atop the rankings since 1993 – 19 years in waiting.  The buzz in South Bend is palpable!
• Again we have the Big 10, ACC and Big East each with 2 ranked teams.  Nothing more to say here. (copied from last week, literally)
• The two surprise conferences in the rankings are the MWC and the MAC each with one team.

BCS Scenarios – not all of them, but the ones that should be watched the most.

• #1 Notre Dame – it is as simple as winning in LA on Saturday night and the Irish are headed to the title game in Miami.  See comments below about this match-up.
• #2 Alabama – has to beat their arch rival Auburn which is horrendous this year at 3-8 overall and 0-7 in the SEC.  After taking care of Auburn, ‘Bama must take care of #3 UGA in the SEC Championship game.  That will be a fun game to watch, but should ‘Bama win out they are headed to Miami as well.
• #3 Georgia – has to beat their inner-state rival Georgia Tech on Saturday and then has to knock off #2 Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  They have two tough games on their schedule remaining, but they control their own destiny, win out and they are in the national title game.
• #4 Florida – even as a huge Gator, I have to say that we are the least pretty #4 ranked team ever.  Incredible on defense and special teams, but horrendous on offense.  The most incredible thing about my Gators is that they have heart, fight and know how to win, despite one of the toughest schedules in the country this year.  With that said, if we can somehow find a way to beat #10 FSU on Saturday and #1 ND somehow loses to USC then we will more than likely make it in.  There is an outside chance the human element props Oregon up enough to raise them over us in the BCS rankings, because their is a sentiment of not wanting an all SEC national title game again.  The point being only 3 teams control their destiny, UF being the first that does not.

Games to Watch:

There are 5 top 25 match-ups this weekend and a slew of great rivalry games.  This really is my favorite weekend to watch all year.  In a rivalry, only one thing is going on in each teams mind… smash your rival’s season with a crushing end of the year defeat!  Pride drives it all – everyone wants the right to one year of pride in beating their rival (and if you can, annihilate them on the scoreboard in the process).  These games get ugly and have history that make it even uglier (sometimes in the stands too).

As I mentioned above, for your ease I have included the 3 Thanksgiving Day NFL games as a part of the below summary so that you can easily not miss any football tomorrow!

Thanksgiving Day

• We no longer have Texas A&M vs. Texas on Thanksgiving Day.  I think it’s dumb that Texas disintegrated that rivalry, the college football fans lose.  And, Texas has to be glad they did… because A&M looks like they would own Texas this year!  Off my soapbox, Thanksgiving Day college football now gives us TCU v. #16 Texas.  A new state rivalry that most are hoping can over time provide the sparks of the lost rivalry mentioned above.  Marketers are dubbing this one – “Instant Classic.”  We’ll see on that one, but some good Turkey day college football viewing nonetheless.

Rivalries with no BCS implication:

• On Friday, you have the Battle for the Golden Boot as #7 LSU and the Mad-Hatter going over to Fayetteville to play Arkansas.  Does Bobby Petrino look like the coach of the year or what, after seeing this team fall apart without him on the sidelines?  Much in the same way the Saints look without Sean Payton.  LSU should pick up the win here as the Razorbacks look helpless again without Petrino.
• #19 Michigan heads to The Horseshoe to meet unranked Ohio State (reminder: OSU is on probation, so they aren’t ranked in the BCS.  In the AP they are ranked #4).  Denard Robinson should be back for this one, but no one knows exactly what role.  He’ll more than likely play WR, RB, QB, etc.  Michigan ended a 7 game losing streak last year at home, but I think Ohio State wins this one in a game that is decided by a touchdown or less.  Braxton Miller has really improved steadily all year.  Great rivalry with tons of college football pageantry.  Dot the “i”!
• The Bedlam Series features #21 Oklahoma State v. #13 Oklahoma this year.  Can OU take back the reigns of this rivalry, after losing last year for the first time in the previous 9?  OU is also playing for the Big 12 title and a possible BCS bowl game.  This will be a very close and hard fought game, but I’m going with the Sooners at home.
• #8 Stanford v. #17 UCLA.  Both teams are coming off big wins.  Stanford over then #2 Oregon and UCLA over their inner-city rival USC.  This is another inner-state showdown from Cali.  This game will be really fun to watch and I’ll take UCLA in a close one at home.
• The Battle of The Palmetto State features #12 South Carolina v. #11 Clemson this year.  This is one of the best match-ups ranking wise in the 105 year history of this game.  Over the last few years this game has added some spice with both Coaches taking shots at each school through the media.  Should be a good game, but I’ll take Clemson over the Lattimore-less Gamecocks.

Rivalries with BCS implications:

• The Civil War features #5 Oregon vs. #15 Oregon State.  This game has plenty of Pac-12 implications and Rose Bowl implications as well.  Can Oregon bounce back after a disappointing loss to Stanford in OT last week?  I think they do as they need this one to keep their slim chances of a national title shot alive, but this one will be a very close contest.
• #4 Florida travels to Tallahassee to take on #10 FSWho.  This game has the spotlight back on it after a few years of one or the other being under the radar, this is the first time since 2000 that both are ranked in the top 10 coming into this game.  Clearly I’m not a fan of the Seminoles, but think this will be hard game for my Gators to pull off.  Driskel is set to return from a high ankle sprain, after missing last weeks game.  Two great defenses will keep this game close, but in the end ‘the school up north’ has a better offense and wins by 7-10.  Fireworks will be going off in this one.  The Gators need this one bad to keep a shot at the title alive as well.
• Hide your trees ladies and gentlemen – The Iron Bowl.  Auburn heads down to Tuscaloosa to take on #2 Alabama.  This is one of the most heated rivalries in the game, but lacks some luster this year as Auburn is horrible.  This one will be chippy.  Implications here are that ‘Bama needs to win to keep their #2 ranking, wouldn’t that be something if Auburn’s only SEC win this year was against their arch rival, ending their national title hopes.  Auburn will leave it all on the field, but this one shouldn’t be close at all.
• Marquee Match-up: #1 Notre Dame travels to USC.  The Coliseum has been the place where many ND national title hopes have gone to die, 3 times before.  Matt Barkley is out for the Trojans, leaving the big-armed red-shirt freshman Max Wittek at QB.  This one is hard for me to pick from a score standpoint.  I think ND wins as Coach Kelly will have his guys locked in for this one, playing for 20 years of ND fans that haven’t seen this happen in a while.  On one hand, I think ND could run USC off the field.  They play great D and good O, against a USC team that has underperformed in historic proportions this year, with 4 losses already.  But, given the history of this game and that USC is playing to save their season and possibly Kiffin’s job I could see them finally putting their talent together for 4 quarters and making this another historic game in this rivalry.  Either way this is THE marquee game this weekend and will be very fun to watch.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
Thanksgiving	11:30 AM		Texans	v.		Lions	CBS	NFL Game
	3:25 PM		Redskins	v.		Cowboys	FOX	NFL Game
	6:30 PM		TCU	v.	16	Texas	ESPN	Texas
	7:20 PM		Patriots	v.		Jets	NBC	NFL Game
11/23/2012	11:00 AM		Ohio	v.	23	Kent State	ESPNU	Kent State
	1:30 PM	7	LSU	v.		Arkansas	CBS	LSU
11/24/2012	11:00 AM	19	Michigan	v.		Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	11:00 AM		Georgia Tech	v.	3	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:00 PM	5	Oregon	v.	15	Oregon State	Pac 12	Oregon
	2:30 PM	4	Florida	v.	10	Florida State	ABC	Florida State
	2:30 PM		Auburn	v.	2	Alabama	CBS	Alabama
	2:30 PM	21	Oklahoma St.	v.	13	Oklahoma	ESPN	Oklahoma
	5:30 PM	8	Stanford	v.	17	UCLA	FOX	UCLA
	6:00 PM	12	South Carolina	v.	11	Clemson	ESPN	Clemson
	6:00 PM		Missouri	v.	9	Texas A&M	ESPN2	Texas A&M
	7:00 PM	1	Notre Dame	v.		USC	ABC	Notre Dame
Other Notables:
11/24/2012	1:30 PM		Baylor	v.		Texas Tech	FOX

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  We all have tons to be thankful for.  All of which we don’t deserve.As always it is great to be a Florida Gator.  Please pummel the Seminoles this weekend.  Take the rivalry back!As always it is great to be a Florida Gator.  Please pummel the Seminoles this weekend.  Go Gators!

Can you believe I made it through an entire post without mentioned Johnny Football?  Oops.  Next week we’ll take a look at the Heisman front-runners.

Week 12: Games to Watch

Can this weekend live up to the drama that we saw last weekend?!?!  This game is crazy… love it!

Last weekend wrap-up:

• A&M pulled off the major upset of the season so far.  Nick Satan’s program finally got beaten.  When things like this happen I call it the “collision of circumstances” and in this case many were in favor of A&M which made this one extremely hard for me to pick.  (1) Bama got the heck beat out of them physically by LSU the weekend prior in a major slugfest – A&M should send LSU a major thank you! (2) Bama was coming off an emotional come from behind win over their arch-rival. (3) The one weakness (by Bama standards) was their secondary – A&M is the only team in the SEC, with Sumlin and Johnny Football, that could take advantage. (4) During the game, many mistakes that aren’t typical of Bama happened – turnovers and mental errors (costly penalties, etc.).  This “collision of circumstances” made this game ripe for the picking and A&M sure took advantage.  Even with all of this the game was only won by 5 points.  Bama is still lurking at #4 in the BCS.
• Do we have a new Heisman favorite?  Johnny Football has definitely taken on an aura of itself. This kid will be fun to watch for a few more years in College Station.  Great players make this game extra fun to watch.
• There weren’t any other real upsets or big things to talk about as the other unbeatens that mattered won – Kansas State, Oregon and ND.  I say that mattered, because then #9 and unbeaten Louisville got hammered by Syracuse.

I went 4-2 on my picks, now sitting at 71% for the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC still leading the class with 6 ranked teams… ALL 6 are in the Top 10.
• Pac 12 moves into the second spot as talked about… also with 6 ranked teams.  The Pac 12 teams are all over the Top 25, with Oregon at #2 being book-ended by Washington at #25.  The median of Pac 12 teams is 16.5, versus a median of 6.5 for the SEC.
• Big 12 added one ranked team to increase their overall number to 5.  The conference does claim one of the spots that matters as Kansas State is the new #1.
• Notre Dame is still on the outside looking in at #3.  They need 1 of the top 2 teams to lose to get in.  Can an early Christmas present be delivered?  Can they themselves finish out undefeated?  All questions that are not so simple to answer – see below for more on this.
• Again we have the Big 10, ACC and Big East each with 2 ranked teams.  Nothing more to say here.

Regarding the 3 remaining undefeated teams.  All 3 have manageable schedules, however this is November.  November has historically not been kind to top 3 teams.  In the BCS era (’98-’11) 16 Top 3 teams lost in the final 3 weeks of the season. 10 of those 16 lost as 10+ point favorites (ESPN Research).  Kansas State, Oregon and ND better strap it on to close out the season like they need to.  Armageddon?  Wouldn’t that be fun to see all 3 lose?  Let’s look at each of their remaining schedules real quick:

• #1 Kansas State – 11/17 at Baylor, 12/1 vs. #15 Texas
• #2 Oregon – 11/17 vs. #13 Stanford, 11/24 at #16 Oregon State
• #3 Notre Dame – 11/17 vs. Wake Forest, 11/24 at #18 USC

Oregon has the toughest finish on paper.  Oh by the way all 3 are favored by 10+ on Saturday.  Good luck. 

Games to Watch:

We have 3 top 25 match-ups this week.  Plenty of great games to watch, but really only one that could have any major effect on the BCS standings.

• #1 Kansas State heads down to Waco for a shootout as the new #1.  Can they handle the hype?  Baylor has a porous run D, which doesn’t bode well against Collin Klein.  I think K State pulls this one off, as they then focus their attention to a slowly improving #15 ranked Texas team in 2 weeks.
• #2 Oregon plays host to #13 Stanford.  Stanford has pulled off a few dream killing upsets in the recent past, but I just think this Oregon O will be too fast for their D.  Oregon wins with a decent margin.
• #18 USC v. #17 UCLA face off in the battle of LA.  Rivalry, rivalry!  Could a loss to UCLA get Kiffin fired, after an already disappointing season (remember they were the AP pre-season #1)?  I think this one will be closer than the talent would indicate.
• If you like Big 10 football, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin will be a fun one to watch.  If Wisky wins they’ll be headed to the Big 10 Championship game.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
11/17/2012	2:05 PM	18	USC	v.	17	UCLA	FOX	USC
	2:30 PM	23	Texas Tech	v.	24	Oklahoma St.	FSN	Oklahoma St.
	2:30 PM		Ohio State	v.		Wisconsin	ABC	Wisconsin
	7:00 PM	1	Kansas St.	v.		Baylor	ESPN	Kansas St.
	7:00 PM	13	Stanford	v.	2	Oregon	ABC	Oregon
Other Notables:
11/17/2012	12:00 PM		Jacksonville St.	v.	6	Florida	ESPN3
	2:30 PM		Sam Houston St.	v.	8	Texas A&M	ESPN3
			Texas				BYE
			TCU				BYE

Enjoy the weekend, but more importantly… make sure you take the time to tell your family/spouse how much they mean to you.  There are much more important things in life than College Football, although it does definitely make it more fun!

Go Gators!