Week 9: Games to Watch

First off, sorry for the late post.  However, it is kind of fun to write this as I watch College Gameday.  It is definitely one of the best shows on television – top notch producing by Lee Fitting, Chris Fowler is a genius and the crew plays well together.  Truly a joy to watch.  A little bit of crazy, mixed with some knowledge bombs every now and then.

Well, what did I tell you?  Upsets start flooding down between mid-October and the end of November.  Week 7 provided five top 25 upsets, Week 8 topped that with eight top 25 upsets.  The polls have more ups and downs in the last 2 weeks than a teenage girl.  What will this weekend have in store?  The slate of games to watch includes four battles between ranked teams.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/26/2013	2:30 PM	10	Texas Tech	v.	15	Oklahoma	FOX	Oklahoma
	6:00 PM	12	UCLA	v.	3	Oregon	ESPN	Oregon
	6:00 PM	21	South Carolina	v.	5	Missouri	ESPN2	Missouri
	7:00 PM		Penn State	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	9:30 PM	6	Stanford	v.	25	Oregon State	ESPN	Stanford
Other Notables:
	6:30 PM		Texas	v.		TCU	FS1
			Florida				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• Louisville – how sad is that that they couldn’t run the table in the AAC?  #weaksauce
• Missouri – Gary Pinkel deserves a major tip of the cap (or should I say visor).  His team has won each game by 15 points or more.  They are completely in control of the SEC east.  Who would have ever thought that heading into this season?  Sure the typical east contenders (UGA, UF) have been decimated with injuries, but Mizzou has looked good in each contest.  Good luck with Bama in ATL.
• Alabama – speaking of… they seem to be hitting their stride.  Yikes!  #nuffsaid
• Florida State – as hard as it is for me to say this, WOW!  This team looks great and Jameis Winston is the real deal.  They made Clemson look stupid in their own backyard.  Will a rather soft schedule come back to haunt FSU down the stretch in the battle for the #2 spot in the BCS?  Or is the bigger question, can FSU avoid a late season stumble?  FSU and clutch hasn’t been in the same sentence since the 90’s.  This team looks different though.

I went 3-3 on my week 8 picks.  Dropping my pick percentage slightly for the season to 74%.

Week 8 BCS Ranking Thoughts:

• The initial rankings are out in the final season under the BCS.  It only seems fitting that the final year of the BCS could end in catastrophe (i.e. multiple undefeated teams from major conferences).  Below I’ll give quick thoughts on the initial Top 10 BCS teams.
• #1 Bama – is anyone surprised?  The Saban Way is in full stride as they are seeking 3 in a row.
• #2 FSU – this is the “surprise” of the initial rankings as they jumped Oregon from the human polls.  Obviously to this point they have looked the part.  Odds are that if they win out and Oregon wins out, Oregon coming from arguably the toughest conference this year, that Oregon will jump them for the coveted #2 spot.  This seems to be the perfect year to have the 4 team playoff… well the desire for that will only make the wait for next year that much greater.  The playoff can’t seem to get here soon enough.
• #3 Oregon – see above.  They shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they take care of their schedule, albeit a tough schedule.
• #4 Ohio State – I’m not overly impressed with this team.  The Big 10 just seems so soft and has shown that over the last few years in the BCS games.
• #5 Missouri – the other “surprise” here.  If they take care of the schedule, including a meeting with #1 Bama in ATL they they will be playing for the title.  This team looks good, but getting past Bama seems a tall task.
• #6 Stanford – this is the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Speaks to the strength of the Pac-12 as they are ranked ahead of 3 undefeated teams.
• #7 Miami – one of the biggest remaining games in the regular season is next weekend against #2 FSU.  Still think that the relative weakness of the ACC will cause the winner of this game to be looking just on the outside of the coveted #2 spot in the BCS.
• #8 Baylor – this may be the team to watch in the final weeks.  If they can win out, a big IF.  The schedule rises significantly in strength each week.  However if they win out, I think you will hear big screams from Waco as they will likely also be on the outside looking in.  This team could be one of three teams (FSU, OSU and BU) that can’t crack the top 2.
• #9 Clemson – doesn’t look so shiny after getting embarrassed last weekend by #2 FSU.
• #10 Texas Tech – the right mix has happened for this team to crack the initial top 10: pretty coach (see: Ryan Gosling), easy opening schedule (only played one team so far with a winning record – Texas State) and 13 teams over the last two weekends that have been upset.  Sitting in the same situation as #8 Baylor.  Plenty of big IFs remaining (starting today in Norman), I don’t see this holding up.  It is great fun for the Red Raiders with their first year HC, although it seems a little shallow to this point.

Games to Watch – Previews:

From a national championship perspective (which is what every body cares about right?), there is only one game that has big implications directly on the top of the BCS rankings this weekend:

• #12 UCLA v. #3 Oregon – College Gameday is on site.  The line for this game out of Vega is 24.  The largest line for the Games to Watch this weekend.  I don’t see this one being close, as Oregon has only seemed to get better each week.  However, if UCLA can pull off the major upset… then the BCS chaos will get really fun.  (Pick: ORE by 21)
• #21 South Carolina v. #5 Missouri – This is perhaps the most intriguing game this weekend.  Can Missouri effectively win the SEC East this early in the season?  They were picked to be at best 4th in the East and are now on the verge of putting a fork in it.  If South Carolina QB – Connor Shaw plays, this game could come down to the wire.  If not, I think Missouri wins this East.  (Pick: Mizz by 7)
• #10 Texas Tech v. #15 Oklahoma – The last time Texas Tech came to Norman undefeated, Red Raider fans would like to forget.  Tech came in at #2 in the BCS and then #5 OU demolished them 65 – 21.  Can the fate change here?  There is no way this game reaches that level of scoring by OU.  OU is still searching for passing consistency with Blake Bell.  This game will be a close one and very fun to watch.  (Pick: OU by 3)
• #6 Stanford v. #25 Oregon State – Sean Mannion from Oregon State is flying under the radar as he leads the country in passing.  After Oregon State opened the season embarrassingly by losing to FCS Eastern Washington (remember when the FCS showed out against the FBS in week 1?), they have reeled off 6 straight with Mannion passing all over each opponent.  However, this Stanford D is solid at each level.  David Shaw and his bunch will be ready for this one.  I have to admit, the Pac-12 has become fun to watch.  Several years ago I didn’t find that to be the case (exception being USC – is it just me or is Oregon the new USC in the Pac-12?).  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• Penn State v. #4 Ohio State – the Big 10 has become such a lackluster conference in my opinion.  The Big 10 has effectively flipped positions with the Pac-12, two teams at the top and weakness the rest of the way through the conference.  That is how I view the Big 10 now and used to view the Pac-12 a few years ago.  Either way, Penn State is well coached but loses the talent edge here.  You can’t sleep on this Penn State squad ever, they are fighters.  I hope Penn State wins, but I think the Buckeyes will win with talent.  (Pick: OSU by 14)

Which ranked team is going to lose today?  It is inevitable.  #letsgo

One quick video.  This catch from Marquez North, a true-freshman, was one of the best I’ve ever seen.  Tennessee was down by 1 and needed a FG to win.  This catch put them into FG range and the Volunteers got their first big win in what seems like a decade.  This kid will be a monster receiver for the next few years in the SEC.  As a Gator, I hate to admit… but this was one heck of a catch:

Week 5: Games to Watch

Big weekend on the way.  We have 4 top 25 match-ups to partake in on Saturday.  A slightly down weekend last Saturday, but it picks right back up with some BIG games.  3 of the big 4 are conference games.  The weather (here in TX) is starting to cool a bit, crank up the grill and enjoy the fall transition.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/28/2013	2:30 PM	6	LSU	v.	9	Georgia	CBS	Georgia
	2:30 PM	14	Oklahoma	v.	22	Notre Dame	NBC	Oklahoma
	5:30 PM	21	Ole Miss	v.	1	Alabama	ESPN	Alabama
	7:00 PM	23	Wisconsin	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
Other Notables:
9/28/2013	6:00 PM	20	Florida	v.		Kentucky	ESPNU
	6:00 PM	10	Texas A&M	v.		Arkansas	ESPN2
			Texas				BYE
		24	Texas Tech				BYE

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

• Honestly last weekend didn’t give us too much to talk about in terms of surprises or mega games so I’ll keep this short and sweet this week.
• Florida dominated Tennessee as expected, extending the streak to 9 in a row over the Vols.  The Florida D looks to be the best in the nation.  The D got some bad news on Tuesday as the best defensive player – Dominque Easley – tore his ACL in practice and is out for the season.  Hard news to take for a kid that has worked back from a torn ACL in the last game of the 2011 season.  Great motor and potential top 15 pick.  The D has depth so they will be fine.  Florida also lost their starting QB for the season during the game against Tennessee, as he broke his right leg.  Tyler Murphy came in and the O didn’t seem to miss a beat… maybe even took a step forward.  See video below for highlights/lowlights (injury) of the game:

• Stanford continued to impress as they beat a ranked Arizona State team on Saturday night by 14.  This could show how the Pac 12 championship game will play out.  Very easily could see Stanford and Arizona State meeting again in that game.  Other contenders are Oregon in the North Division w/ Stanford and UCLA in the South Division w/ Arizona State.  The impending Oregon v. Stanford game in Palo Alto on 11/7 continues to shape up as a huge game in not only the Pac-12 race but also with national championship implications.  Game highlights below:

I went 4-0 on my week 4 picks, now sitting at 71% for the season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: There wasn’t much movement in the polls this week as no upsets occurred in the Top 25.  The biggest move downward is Michigan down 3 spots as they failed to impress as they barely beat a win-less UCONN team.  We have one new member to the AP poll in Fresno State.  Arizona State dropped out after the loss to #5 Stanford.
  
• Coaches Poll: Not much movement here either.  Michigan was also the biggest loser in this poll as well.  There are two new members to the Coaches poll – Wisconsin and Texas Tech.  Both were already ranked in the AP last week so the Coaches is just evening things up a bit.  Arizona State dropped out as seen in the AP, with Michigan State also dropping out after the loss to #21 Notre Dame.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We are back to some BIG time college football games with 4 top 25 match-ups this weekend.  College Gameday is heading to Athens for the battle between the hedges with the Georgia Bulldogs playing host to LSU.  Enough intro, let’s discuss the games to watch.

• #6 LSU v. #9 Georgia – Big top 10 match-up here in the SEC.  Georgia is ranked behind LSU, but I believe they are a slightly better team.  Georgia has played one of the toughest opening schedules in the nation, resulting in their only loss to #3 Clemson.  Both of these teams are stacked with talent at every position and both have looked very impressive in the first 4 weeks of the season.  Can Zach Mettenberger (LSU QB) beat the team he originally signed with?  Side note: his mom works in the football offices at Georgia too.  I think again Zach loses out to Aaron Murray as I’m picking the home team in this one.  Close game, but give me the Bulldogs by 3.
• #14 Oklahoma v. #22 Notre Dame – This game is being played at the same time as the BIG one above, but if you like OU or ND this will be a fun game to watch.  Blake Bell shed some of the stereotype that he can only run – nicknamed the Belldozer – as he passed for 413 yards and 4 TD last week.  The Notre Dame D is much better than that of Tulsa.  However, the OU D is better than that of Notre Dame.  Even though this game is in South Bend, I’ll take OU by 3.  Should be another really close game.
• #21 Ole Miss v. #1 Alabama – The youth of Ole Miss versus the Bama machine.  This Ole Miss team is fun to watch as they have the most talent on the field in their school history.  I think it is a year too early for this young team to travel into Tuscaloosa and take down the #1 team in the nation.  I think Bama will control this game pretty well from start to finish.  Bama wins by 14+.  Next year this game in Oxford will be much closer as these young, highly regarded freshmen from Ole Miss mature over the season.
• #23 Wisconsin v. #4 Ohio State – A great early season Big 10 showdown from the Leaders Division (still hate these divisional names).  Wisconsin is averaging 8.1 yards per rush in the early season, against some weak foes.  Over the last few years OSU has been able to slow the Wisconsin rushing attack big time.  I expect more of the same here.  On the offensive side for OSU is the interesting question of who is playing at QB – Braxton Miller (Heisman hopeful, returning from injury) or Kenny Guiton who set a school record last week with 6 TD passes in the game.  This week the HC for OSU has listed them as co-starters.  Is that due to Miller still recovering or the fact that they may play both?  Either way I expect the Buckeyes to win this one by 7+ at home.

Great game, great games!  Enjoy the weekend loaded with top 25 match-ups.