Week 9: Games to Watch

First off, sorry for the late post.  However, it is kind of fun to write this as I watch College Gameday.  It is definitely one of the best shows on television – top notch producing by Lee Fitting, Chris Fowler is a genius and the crew plays well together.  Truly a joy to watch.  A little bit of crazy, mixed with some knowledge bombs every now and then.

Well, what did I tell you?  Upsets start flooding down between mid-October and the end of November.  Week 7 provided five top 25 upsets, Week 8 topped that with eight top 25 upsets.  The polls have more ups and downs in the last 2 weeks than a teenage girl.  What will this weekend have in store?  The slate of games to watch includes four battles between ranked teams.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/26/2013	2:30 PM	10	Texas Tech	v.	15	Oklahoma	FOX	Oklahoma
	6:00 PM	12	UCLA	v.	3	Oregon	ESPN	Oregon
	6:00 PM	21	South Carolina	v.	5	Missouri	ESPN2	Missouri
	7:00 PM		Penn State	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	9:30 PM	6	Stanford	v.	25	Oregon State	ESPN	Stanford
Other Notables:
	6:30 PM		Texas	v.		TCU	FS1
			Florida				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• Louisville – how sad is that that they couldn’t run the table in the AAC?  #weaksauce
• Missouri – Gary Pinkel deserves a major tip of the cap (or should I say visor).  His team has won each game by 15 points or more.  They are completely in control of the SEC east.  Who would have ever thought that heading into this season?  Sure the typical east contenders (UGA, UF) have been decimated with injuries, but Mizzou has looked good in each contest.  Good luck with Bama in ATL.
• Alabama – speaking of… they seem to be hitting their stride.  Yikes!  #nuffsaid
• Florida State – as hard as it is for me to say this, WOW!  This team looks great and Jameis Winston is the real deal.  They made Clemson look stupid in their own backyard.  Will a rather soft schedule come back to haunt FSU down the stretch in the battle for the #2 spot in the BCS?  Or is the bigger question, can FSU avoid a late season stumble?  FSU and clutch hasn’t been in the same sentence since the 90’s.  This team looks different though.

I went 3-3 on my week 8 picks.  Dropping my pick percentage slightly for the season to 74%.

Week 8 BCS Ranking Thoughts:

• The initial rankings are out in the final season under the BCS.  It only seems fitting that the final year of the BCS could end in catastrophe (i.e. multiple undefeated teams from major conferences).  Below I’ll give quick thoughts on the initial Top 10 BCS teams.
• #1 Bama – is anyone surprised?  The Saban Way is in full stride as they are seeking 3 in a row.
• #2 FSU – this is the “surprise” of the initial rankings as they jumped Oregon from the human polls.  Obviously to this point they have looked the part.  Odds are that if they win out and Oregon wins out, Oregon coming from arguably the toughest conference this year, that Oregon will jump them for the coveted #2 spot.  This seems to be the perfect year to have the 4 team playoff… well the desire for that will only make the wait for next year that much greater.  The playoff can’t seem to get here soon enough.
• #3 Oregon – see above.  They shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they take care of their schedule, albeit a tough schedule.
• #4 Ohio State – I’m not overly impressed with this team.  The Big 10 just seems so soft and has shown that over the last few years in the BCS games.
• #5 Missouri – the other “surprise” here.  If they take care of the schedule, including a meeting with #1 Bama in ATL they they will be playing for the title.  This team looks good, but getting past Bama seems a tall task.
• #6 Stanford – this is the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Speaks to the strength of the Pac-12 as they are ranked ahead of 3 undefeated teams.
• #7 Miami – one of the biggest remaining games in the regular season is next weekend against #2 FSU.  Still think that the relative weakness of the ACC will cause the winner of this game to be looking just on the outside of the coveted #2 spot in the BCS.
• #8 Baylor – this may be the team to watch in the final weeks.  If they can win out, a big IF.  The schedule rises significantly in strength each week.  However if they win out, I think you will hear big screams from Waco as they will likely also be on the outside looking in.  This team could be one of three teams (FSU, OSU and BU) that can’t crack the top 2.
• #9 Clemson – doesn’t look so shiny after getting embarrassed last weekend by #2 FSU.
• #10 Texas Tech – the right mix has happened for this team to crack the initial top 10: pretty coach (see: Ryan Gosling), easy opening schedule (only played one team so far with a winning record – Texas State) and 13 teams over the last two weekends that have been upset.  Sitting in the same situation as #8 Baylor.  Plenty of big IFs remaining (starting today in Norman), I don’t see this holding up.  It is great fun for the Red Raiders with their first year HC, although it seems a little shallow to this point.

Games to Watch – Previews:

From a national championship perspective (which is what every body cares about right?), there is only one game that has big implications directly on the top of the BCS rankings this weekend:

• #12 UCLA v. #3 Oregon – College Gameday is on site.  The line for this game out of Vega is 24.  The largest line for the Games to Watch this weekend.  I don’t see this one being close, as Oregon has only seemed to get better each week.  However, if UCLA can pull off the major upset… then the BCS chaos will get really fun.  (Pick: ORE by 21)
• #21 South Carolina v. #5 Missouri – This is perhaps the most intriguing game this weekend.  Can Missouri effectively win the SEC East this early in the season?  They were picked to be at best 4th in the East and are now on the verge of putting a fork in it.  If South Carolina QB – Connor Shaw plays, this game could come down to the wire.  If not, I think Missouri wins this East.  (Pick: Mizz by 7)
• #10 Texas Tech v. #15 Oklahoma – The last time Texas Tech came to Norman undefeated, Red Raider fans would like to forget.  Tech came in at #2 in the BCS and then #5 OU demolished them 65 – 21.  Can the fate change here?  There is no way this game reaches that level of scoring by OU.  OU is still searching for passing consistency with Blake Bell.  This game will be a close one and very fun to watch.  (Pick: OU by 3)
• #6 Stanford v. #25 Oregon State – Sean Mannion from Oregon State is flying under the radar as he leads the country in passing.  After Oregon State opened the season embarrassingly by losing to FCS Eastern Washington (remember when the FCS showed out against the FBS in week 1?), they have reeled off 6 straight with Mannion passing all over each opponent.  However, this Stanford D is solid at each level.  David Shaw and his bunch will be ready for this one.  I have to admit, the Pac-12 has become fun to watch.  Several years ago I didn’t find that to be the case (exception being USC – is it just me or is Oregon the new USC in the Pac-12?).  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• Penn State v. #4 Ohio State – the Big 10 has become such a lackluster conference in my opinion.  The Big 10 has effectively flipped positions with the Pac-12, two teams at the top and weakness the rest of the way through the conference.  That is how I view the Big 10 now and used to view the Pac-12 a few years ago.  Either way, Penn State is well coached but loses the talent edge here.  You can’t sleep on this Penn State squad ever, they are fighters.  I hope Penn State wins, but I think the Buckeyes will win with talent.  (Pick: OSU by 14)

Which ranked team is going to lose today?  It is inevitable.  #letsgo

One quick video.  This catch from Marquez North, a true-freshman, was one of the best I’ve ever seen.  Tennessee was down by 1 and needed a FG to win.  This catch put them into FG range and the Volunteers got their first big win in what seems like a decade.  This kid will be a monster receiver for the next few years in the SEC.  As a Gator, I hate to admit… but this was one heck of a catch:

Week 5: Games to Watch

Big weekend on the way.  We have 4 top 25 match-ups to partake in on Saturday.  A slightly down weekend last Saturday, but it picks right back up with some BIG games.  3 of the big 4 are conference games.  The weather (here in TX) is starting to cool a bit, crank up the grill and enjoy the fall transition.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/28/2013	2:30 PM	6	LSU	v.	9	Georgia	CBS	Georgia
	2:30 PM	14	Oklahoma	v.	22	Notre Dame	NBC	Oklahoma
	5:30 PM	21	Ole Miss	v.	1	Alabama	ESPN	Alabama
	7:00 PM	23	Wisconsin	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
Other Notables:
9/28/2013	6:00 PM	20	Florida	v.		Kentucky	ESPNU
	6:00 PM	10	Texas A&M	v.		Arkansas	ESPN2
			Texas				BYE
		24	Texas Tech				BYE

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

• Honestly last weekend didn’t give us too much to talk about in terms of surprises or mega games so I’ll keep this short and sweet this week.
• Florida dominated Tennessee as expected, extending the streak to 9 in a row over the Vols.  The Florida D looks to be the best in the nation.  The D got some bad news on Tuesday as the best defensive player – Dominque Easley – tore his ACL in practice and is out for the season.  Hard news to take for a kid that has worked back from a torn ACL in the last game of the 2011 season.  Great motor and potential top 15 pick.  The D has depth so they will be fine.  Florida also lost their starting QB for the season during the game against Tennessee, as he broke his right leg.  Tyler Murphy came in and the O didn’t seem to miss a beat… maybe even took a step forward.  See video below for highlights/lowlights (injury) of the game:

• Stanford continued to impress as they beat a ranked Arizona State team on Saturday night by 14.  This could show how the Pac 12 championship game will play out.  Very easily could see Stanford and Arizona State meeting again in that game.  Other contenders are Oregon in the North Division w/ Stanford and UCLA in the South Division w/ Arizona State.  The impending Oregon v. Stanford game in Palo Alto on 11/7 continues to shape up as a huge game in not only the Pac-12 race but also with national championship implications.  Game highlights below:

I went 4-0 on my week 4 picks, now sitting at 71% for the season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: There wasn’t much movement in the polls this week as no upsets occurred in the Top 25.  The biggest move downward is Michigan down 3 spots as they failed to impress as they barely beat a win-less UCONN team.  We have one new member to the AP poll in Fresno State.  Arizona State dropped out after the loss to #5 Stanford.
  
• Coaches Poll: Not much movement here either.  Michigan was also the biggest loser in this poll as well.  There are two new members to the Coaches poll – Wisconsin and Texas Tech.  Both were already ranked in the AP last week so the Coaches is just evening things up a bit.  Arizona State dropped out as seen in the AP, with Michigan State also dropping out after the loss to #21 Notre Dame.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We are back to some BIG time college football games with 4 top 25 match-ups this weekend.  College Gameday is heading to Athens for the battle between the hedges with the Georgia Bulldogs playing host to LSU.  Enough intro, let’s discuss the games to watch.

• #6 LSU v. #9 Georgia – Big top 10 match-up here in the SEC.  Georgia is ranked behind LSU, but I believe they are a slightly better team.  Georgia has played one of the toughest opening schedules in the nation, resulting in their only loss to #3 Clemson.  Both of these teams are stacked with talent at every position and both have looked very impressive in the first 4 weeks of the season.  Can Zach Mettenberger (LSU QB) beat the team he originally signed with?  Side note: his mom works in the football offices at Georgia too.  I think again Zach loses out to Aaron Murray as I’m picking the home team in this one.  Close game, but give me the Bulldogs by 3.
• #14 Oklahoma v. #22 Notre Dame – This game is being played at the same time as the BIG one above, but if you like OU or ND this will be a fun game to watch.  Blake Bell shed some of the stereotype that he can only run – nicknamed the Belldozer – as he passed for 413 yards and 4 TD last week.  The Notre Dame D is much better than that of Tulsa.  However, the OU D is better than that of Notre Dame.  Even though this game is in South Bend, I’ll take OU by 3.  Should be another really close game.
• #21 Ole Miss v. #1 Alabama – The youth of Ole Miss versus the Bama machine.  This Ole Miss team is fun to watch as they have the most talent on the field in their school history.  I think it is a year too early for this young team to travel into Tuscaloosa and take down the #1 team in the nation.  I think Bama will control this game pretty well from start to finish.  Bama wins by 14+.  Next year this game in Oxford will be much closer as these young, highly regarded freshmen from Ole Miss mature over the season.
• #23 Wisconsin v. #4 Ohio State – A great early season Big 10 showdown from the Leaders Division (still hate these divisional names).  Wisconsin is averaging 8.1 yards per rush in the early season, against some weak foes.  Over the last few years OSU has been able to slow the Wisconsin rushing attack big time.  I expect more of the same here.  On the offensive side for OSU is the interesting question of who is playing at QB – Braxton Miller (Heisman hopeful, returning from injury) or Kenny Guiton who set a school record last week with 6 TD passes in the game.  This week the HC for OSU has listed them as co-starters.  Is that due to Miller still recovering or the fact that they may play both?  Either way I expect the Buckeyes to win this one by 7+ at home.

Great game, great games!  Enjoy the weekend loaded with top 25 match-ups.

Week 3: Games to Watch

There is a rather big game in College Station this weekend.  You may have heard something about it?  This week we have a solid Thursday night game and then Saturday features the most hyped September game that we have seen for some time.  I am baking some wings and propping my feet up for the big game in College Station.  See below for detailed previews of the games to watch

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/12/2013	6:30 PM	24	TCU	v.		Texas Tech	ESPN	Texas Tech
9/14/2013	11:00 AM	16	UCLA	v.	23	Nebraska	ABC	Nebraska
	2:30 PM	1	Alabama	v.	6	Texas A&M	CBS	Alabama
	7:00 PM	25	Ole Miss	v.		Texas	LHN	Ole Miss
Other notables:
9/14/2013		18	Florida				BYE

Last weekend wrap-up:

• I’ll lead on a positive note.  Which teams have impressed me the most through 2 weeks?  I’d have to say Oregon and Clemson.  Oregon hasn’t missed a beat under new HC Mark Helfrich.  Chip Kelly left a full cupboard and the new HC has kept this team on track.  Big time showdown late in the season against Stanford.  Clemson opened the season with a solid W against Georgia and seems to be clicking on all cylinders.  I am not saying these are the two best teams, just the most impressive through 2 weeks.  A close 3rd would have to be Baylor, Art Briles can coach ’em up.
• Speaking of Georgia, they had the toughest opening two weeks I can remember.  Both were top 10 opponents.  Props to Georgia for taking the challenge and fighting big early.  After a close loss last week, Georgia rebounded nicely and defeated #6 South Carolina.  Impressive bounce back.
• Flop #1 – Opponent Inflicted: UT got demolished by the ground game of BYU… yes you read that right.  BYU set a school record for rushing yards in a game w/ 550!!!  That is also the most a Texas defense has ever given up in it’s storied history.  The Texas D was the worst in school history last year and didn’t appear to be any better this year, which resulted in DC Manny Diaz getting fired after week 2.  That was an ugly game to watch for Longhorns fans.  Saturday in Austin it doesn’t get any better with a young Ole Miss team coming in to face a Texas team trying to get back on track w/ a new DC and the starting QB possibly out.  The word out of Austin is that “the succession plan” has been put into motion, meaning this should be Mack Brown’s last year as HC in Austin.  At year’s end Mack will “retire”.  The hunt for the next HC will be a fun one to watch.
• Flop #2 – Self Inflicted: If I told you a team (team #1) more than doubled up the other team in first downs at 22 to 10.  Team #1 was 6/15 on third down conversions while the other team converted just 1/11.  Team #1 had 413 yards of offense while the other team almost half at 212 yards, with just 69 yards gained total in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters.  Team #1 passed for 291 yards while the other 162 yards.  Team #1 QB completed 66% of his passes while the other team’s QB completed less than 50% (48%).  Team #1 averaged 8.8 per completion vs. 6.5 for the other team.  Team #1 rushed for 122 yards, while the other managed just 50 yards rushing for the day.  Team #1 controlled the entire game with the ball for 38:20 minutes the other team held the ball for just 21:40.  How many points would you tell me Team #1 dominated by?  Well that same team had 5 turnovers and was 2/6 in the red zone for only 10 points on those trips – the 4 failed trips ended with 3 TOs and a stopped on downs (4th and 1).  Team #1 lost by 5.  Team #1 would be my beloved Gators.  Dominated every facet of the game except the scoreboard, thanks to foolish turnovers and sloppy penalties.

I went 0-3 on my picks (yuck), now sitting at 56% for the early season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: Biggest mover this week is Miami moving up 11 spots in the AP, along with Michigan moving up 5 spots.  ND and South Carolina dropped the furthest, moving down 7 spots.  The two newest members of the AP poll are Miami after defeating my Gators and Ole Miss after a solid start to the season w/ plenty of freshman contributing early.
• Coaches Poll: Again the biggest mover here is Miami moving up 6 spots.  Florida dropped the further moving down 11 spots this week, after the disappointing defeat at Miami.  The two newest members of the Coaches poll are Ole Miss as seen in the AP poll and Baylor moving into the rankings after continuing to WOW with that offense.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We have 2 top 25 match-ups this weekend, but there is one big time game that everyone will be watching.

• #1 Alabama v. #6 Texas A&M – well this has to be the most hyped September game that I can remember for some time.  College Gameday is in town.  CBS will have a “Johnny Cam”.  Everyone is talking about it and has been since Texas A&M went into Tuscaloosa last year and escaped with a 5 point win.  This game has so many story lines so I won’t repeat them for you.  Whatever you do make sure you are in front of a TV at 2:30 on Saturday.  This one is big time football.  Alabama is coming to town for atonement.  Can Johnny keep up his magic on the field?  Can Saban’s troops get what they feel was taken from them last year?  I have a feeling their will be a collective “Roll Tide” echoing around College Station after the game on Saturday (remember Bama fans travel well).  I think the Crimson Tide will be on point and pull this out with a double digit victory.  I have many people who think that is crazy, but that is why you play the games on the field not in advanced statistical analysis.  According to Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings this is the nation’s #2 Offense vs. #2 Defense.  #gameon
• #24 TCU v. Texas Tech – a Thursday night Big 12 showdown in Lubbock.  Lubbock is no easy place to travel, much less on a week night.  This will be a fun game to watch.  Texas Tech is lead at QB by a walk-on true-freshman who has looked like anything but a walk-on so far – 780 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT thru 2 games.  TCU lost their starting QB again.  The backup has 9 career starts so he has experience.  Can Devonte Fields and the TCU D keep this close?  I think this game will come down to the last few minutes.
• #16 UCLA v. #23 Nebraska – an early season Pac 12 / Big 10 showdown.  Jim Mora is entering his second season at the helm for UCLA and looked to already be moving the program in the right direction last year.  Can they go on the road and win a tough early season contest?  Big questions to answer as Mora is building this program his way.  Which Nebraska team will show up on Saturday?  This team seems so erratic since Pelini took over at HC.  The vaunted Nebraska “Blackshirt” defenses are long in the rear view mirror.  Can this team defend their turf and repay UCLA for the defeat in week 2 last year when Nebraska traveled out west to LA?  A good 11am kickoff game for the viewing pleasure.
• #25 Ole Miss v. Texas – Texas will be hoping for the comforts of home after a brutal defeat in Provo, UT at the hands of BYU last week.  Can the Texas D get it together?  How will the firing of the DC affect this already reeling D?  Will David Ash (starting QB) play?  These are the questions facing Texas this week.  On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss comes to town with some very talented youngsters.  After the best recruiting haul that Ole Miss has ever seen last year, some of these true freshman are already making big time impacts for this team.  The arrows are trending up for this young team under HC Hugh Freeze.  Can they continue the trend up on the road against a perennial powerhouse – even if they are not quite up to their own standards right now?  Will be a fun game to throw on the tube after the big 2:30 match-up in College Station. (NOTE: I changed my pick for this game above, UT Starting QB David Ash is officially out for the game on Saturday.  Based on this, I am picking Ole Miss.  I already thought the game would be close, but this flips it for me)

2013 Kickoff Weekend: Games to Watch

It has been far too long since the season ended on January 7th.  But boy oh boy do we get football back with a great slate of games this weekend!  There is just something about the start of football season – everyone is talking about it, optimism is soaring.  The weather will soon begin to change, grills are getting fired up.  I can hear the thud of the pads and the cracking of the helmets.  The whistles blowing and the coaches yelling.  Fans roaring and commentators doing what they do.

My wife and I have now been married for just over 2 1/2 years.  I’ve tried to get her to understand that this Saturday (there are games tonight, but Gators play Saturday) is more exciting for me than Christmas morning.  I am literally giddy!  Well let’s get into it.

Offseason wrap-up:

• NCAA is still a joke.  I won’t spend too much time on it, but it will be interesting to watch over the next 12-18 months, whether or not the major players (read University Presidents and Athletic Directors) decide to move college football under a different governing body.
• College football playoff is coming!  We have one more season under the BCS and eventually we’ll have the long awaited for playoff system.  That will make for some incredible football!
• Johnny Manziel – I don’t even know what to say about this kid.  Just sad.  Get it together, if for no one else, for your teammates.  I can’t wait to see Alabama come to College Station on 9/14.  Saban with an entire offseason to prepare for Johnny, I have a feeling it is going to be fun to watch if you like defense.  Alabama will do what the NCAA couldn’t – put the hammer down.

Major story lines heading into the season:

• Jadeveon Clowney: can he become only the second player in history to win the Heisman?  I think he is without a doubt the best player in college football and some NFL team, thru a really bad season, will end up with an incredible player to draft #1 overall.
• Alabama / SEC: Can the SEC make it 8 straight national titles?  Better yet, can Alabama make it 3 straight national titles?  I have my opinions about Saban, but they are underlined with great respect.  The guy is a phenomenal coach and has the best dynasty that our sport has seen going on right now.
• Targeting Rule: the rule hasn’t changed but the penalty has.  If a player “targets” a defenseless player or leads with the crown of the helmet, he will be ejected.  If it is the first half of the game he will miss the remainder of the game.  If it is during the second half he will miss the remainder of the game, but also the first half of the next.  I think the sport has taken player protection too far.  The game has become softer.  You will see several hits this year that have nothing to do with “targeting” but pure football and a player will get ejected.  If it happens in a major game or on a major player (see J. Clowney hit against Michigan last year) there will be an uproar.  There is no way that the below hit (see video) is a penalty.  This is football.  Not excited about this one, but it is something to watch for during the season.

Pre-season Poll Summary:

• SEC opens the season with 6 ranked teams, 4 of the top 7 and 5 of the top 10.  Alabama is highest at #1 – shocker!  Can anyone contend with Alabama in the West?  LSU is flying under the radar, comparatively.  The LSU at Bama game on 11/9 will be huge.  The East is wide open with 3 teams all on the same tier – UGA, USC and UF.  All 3 will be fighting for the right to fight Bama in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.
• Big 12 opens the season with 4 ranked teams.  This is the first time since 1992 that no Big 12 team opens the season ranked inside the top 10.  Oklahoma State is highest at #13.  The Big 12 is completely wide open this year – OSU, UT, OU, TCU, BU all have legit shots to win it this year.  Texas has the most experience, can they put it all together and rebound from an abysmal year defensively last year?  Texas has lost 8 games over the last 3 seasons as the favorite.  Can they avoid the disappointing losses this year?  OSU has exciting upside as they are loaded at the offensive skill positions.  OU is breaking in a new QB – the expected start Belldozer got beat out by Redshirt Freshman Trevor Knight.  This kid has skills and will be fun to watch.
• Pac 12 opens the season with 5 ranked teams.  Oregon is highest at #3.  Watch out for Stanford this year (preseason #4), they have possibly the best OL/DL combo in the country this year.
• Big 10 opens the season with 5 ranked teams.  Ohio State is highest at #2.  With a cupcake schedule, they have no reason not to go undefeated again.  Watch out for Michigan State this year, flying under the radar but could do some good things this year.
• ACC opens with 2 ranked teams and the Big East opens with 1 ranked team.  Both are such weak conferences but due to the system in place if Clemson/FSU from the ACC or Louisville from the Big East can go undefeated they will at least be in the conversation for the National Championship.

Games to Watch:

We have 2 top 25 match-ups this week.  What a great slate for opening weekend.  A 5 day college football weekend!  If you want to watch a game beginning today through Labor Day there is a college football game worth watching each day.  Grab your favorite iced beverage and kick back for some football!!!

• The game of the weekend has to be #5 Georgia visiting #8 Clemson.  Props to these two programs for opening with a Top 10 battle in week 1.  Clemson will run down “The Hill” to touch Howard’s Rock and square off against a talented UGA team in Death Valley.  Great traditions to start off the football season.  Aaron Murray v. Tajh Boyd.  College Gameday will be onsite.  Here we go!

• The opening game of the season is the Battle of the Carolinas – North Carolina v. #6 South Carolina.  Tonight at 5:00pm (CT)!.  First game on the board and we get to watch the best player in the country.  Come on with it!
• The other top 25 contest is being played at Jerry’s World.  #12 LSU v. #20 TCU.  This is essentially a home game for TCU, but LSU fans will be descending on Arlington with a force.  This will be a fun game to watch – LSU lost 9 players in the draft last year, but return the remaining 12 as starters.  Will TCU be playing with their best defensive player – Devonte Fields?  Coach Patterson says he will be dressed, despite him also having a 1 game suspension.  I think we’ll see Devonte on the field after a few series.  No way Patterson keeps him off the field in a game where they will desperately need him.
• Quick run down of the 5 day weekend and the games I’ll make sure to watch each day: Thursday – North Carolina v. #6 South Carolina; Friday – Texas Tech v. SMU; Saturday – #5 Georgia v. #8 Clemson; Sunday – Colorado v. Colorado State; Monday – #11 Florida St. v. Pittsburgh.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

As a reminder this is your viewing guide for the weekend.  Channel, time, my picks.  I have two sections: (1) Games to Watch – Typically games with intrigue or national interest and (2) Other notables – Teams of people that I know read the blog (if the game isn’t a game of national interest).  (2) is my way of helping friends and family know when/where to watch their favorite teams.  Enjoy the slate of games for opening weekend!

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	Line	BMW’s pick
8/29/13	5:00 PM		North Carolina	v.	6	South Carolina	ESPN	USC -12	South Carolina
8/31/13	2:30 PM		Mississippi St.	v.	13	Oklahoma St.	ABC	OSU -12.5	Oklahoma St.
	4:30 PM	1	Alabama	v.		Virginia Tech	ESPN	ALA -20	Alabama
	7:00 PM	5	Georgia	v.	8	Clemson	ABC	UGA -2	Georgia
	8:00 PM	12	LSU	v.	20	TCU	ESPN	LSU -4.5	LSU
9/2/13	7:00 PM	11	Florida St.	v.		Pittsburgh	ESPN	FSU -10.5	Florida St.
Other notables:
8/30/13	7:00 PM		Texas Tech	v.		SMU	ESPN	TTU -6
8/31/13	11:21 AM		Toledo	v.	10	Florida	ESPN3	UF -23.5
	7:00 PM		New Mexico St.	v.	15	Texas	LHN	UT -42
9/1/13	5:00 PM		Colorado	v.		Colorado St.	CBSSN	CSU -3

Here we go!  Only a few hours until the season kicks off.  Go Gators!

Week 12: Games to Watch

Can this weekend live up to the drama that we saw last weekend?!?!  This game is crazy… love it!

Last weekend wrap-up:

• A&M pulled off the major upset of the season so far.  Nick Satan’s program finally got beaten.  When things like this happen I call it the “collision of circumstances” and in this case many were in favor of A&M which made this one extremely hard for me to pick.  (1) Bama got the heck beat out of them physically by LSU the weekend prior in a major slugfest – A&M should send LSU a major thank you! (2) Bama was coming off an emotional come from behind win over their arch-rival. (3) The one weakness (by Bama standards) was their secondary – A&M is the only team in the SEC, with Sumlin and Johnny Football, that could take advantage. (4) During the game, many mistakes that aren’t typical of Bama happened – turnovers and mental errors (costly penalties, etc.).  This “collision of circumstances” made this game ripe for the picking and A&M sure took advantage.  Even with all of this the game was only won by 5 points.  Bama is still lurking at #4 in the BCS.
• Do we have a new Heisman favorite?  Johnny Football has definitely taken on an aura of itself. This kid will be fun to watch for a few more years in College Station.  Great players make this game extra fun to watch.
• There weren’t any other real upsets or big things to talk about as the other unbeatens that mattered won – Kansas State, Oregon and ND.  I say that mattered, because then #9 and unbeaten Louisville got hammered by Syracuse.

I went 4-2 on my picks, now sitting at 71% for the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC still leading the class with 6 ranked teams… ALL 6 are in the Top 10.
• Pac 12 moves into the second spot as talked about… also with 6 ranked teams.  The Pac 12 teams are all over the Top 25, with Oregon at #2 being book-ended by Washington at #25.  The median of Pac 12 teams is 16.5, versus a median of 6.5 for the SEC.
• Big 12 added one ranked team to increase their overall number to 5.  The conference does claim one of the spots that matters as Kansas State is the new #1.
• Notre Dame is still on the outside looking in at #3.  They need 1 of the top 2 teams to lose to get in.  Can an early Christmas present be delivered?  Can they themselves finish out undefeated?  All questions that are not so simple to answer – see below for more on this.
• Again we have the Big 10, ACC and Big East each with 2 ranked teams.  Nothing more to say here.

Regarding the 3 remaining undefeated teams.  All 3 have manageable schedules, however this is November.  November has historically not been kind to top 3 teams.  In the BCS era (’98-’11) 16 Top 3 teams lost in the final 3 weeks of the season. 10 of those 16 lost as 10+ point favorites (ESPN Research).  Kansas State, Oregon and ND better strap it on to close out the season like they need to.  Armageddon?  Wouldn’t that be fun to see all 3 lose?  Let’s look at each of their remaining schedules real quick:

• #1 Kansas State – 11/17 at Baylor, 12/1 vs. #15 Texas
• #2 Oregon – 11/17 vs. #13 Stanford, 11/24 at #16 Oregon State
• #3 Notre Dame – 11/17 vs. Wake Forest, 11/24 at #18 USC

Oregon has the toughest finish on paper.  Oh by the way all 3 are favored by 10+ on Saturday.  Good luck. 

Games to Watch:

We have 3 top 25 match-ups this week.  Plenty of great games to watch, but really only one that could have any major effect on the BCS standings.

• #1 Kansas State heads down to Waco for a shootout as the new #1.  Can they handle the hype?  Baylor has a porous run D, which doesn’t bode well against Collin Klein.  I think K State pulls this one off, as they then focus their attention to a slowly improving #15 ranked Texas team in 2 weeks.
• #2 Oregon plays host to #13 Stanford.  Stanford has pulled off a few dream killing upsets in the recent past, but I just think this Oregon O will be too fast for their D.  Oregon wins with a decent margin.
• #18 USC v. #17 UCLA face off in the battle of LA.  Rivalry, rivalry!  Could a loss to UCLA get Kiffin fired, after an already disappointing season (remember they were the AP pre-season #1)?  I think this one will be closer than the talent would indicate.
• If you like Big 10 football, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin will be a fun one to watch.  If Wisky wins they’ll be headed to the Big 10 Championship game.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
11/17/2012	2:05 PM	18	USC	v.	17	UCLA	FOX	USC
	2:30 PM	23	Texas Tech	v.	24	Oklahoma St.	FSN	Oklahoma St.
	2:30 PM		Ohio State	v.		Wisconsin	ABC	Wisconsin
	7:00 PM	1	Kansas St.	v.		Baylor	ESPN	Kansas St.
	7:00 PM	13	Stanford	v.	2	Oregon	ABC	Oregon
Other Notables:
11/17/2012	12:00 PM		Jacksonville St.	v.	6	Florida	ESPN3
	2:30 PM		Sam Houston St.	v.	8	Texas A&M	ESPN3
			Texas				BYE
			TCU				BYE

Enjoy the weekend, but more importantly… make sure you take the time to tell your family/spouse how much they mean to you.  There are much more important things in life than College Football, although it does definitely make it more fun!

Go Gators!

Week 11: Games to Watch

It’s almost the weekend… which means more college football.  Soak it in!  It’ll be over before we know it and the wait for training camp 2013 will begin.

Last weekend wrap-up:

• The rematch of the national championship that everyone had been waiting for definitely lived up to the hype.  It was very close throughout and went down to the very last drive.  AJ McCarron will go down as one of the most revered QBs in Bama’s illustrious history with “The Crimson Drive.”  Yeldon is a beast!  What an incredible finish.
• Oregon was able to defeat USC in “Deflategate.”  Kiffin is a scum bag and adds another distraction to the USC radar.  Does anyone in the country believe that the student manager really did this completely of his own accord?  Either way, USC has dramatically under-performed this year.  The preseason AP #1 now has 3 losses.  On paper one of the most talent rich teams in the country, but Kiffin proves again that he is horrible at developing talent and producing with the X’s and O’s.  Oregon is no joke and would be a fun matchup to watch against Alabama if they can make it through 2 more tough games in their final 3.
• Kansas State continues to be one of the most effective teams on the field, minimizing errors and fundamentally always on their game.  Collin Klein is leading the Heisman talk by all accounts, at this point.  They beat a good offensive team in OK State and have a manageable but yet difficult final 3 to get to Miami.

I went 4-1 on my picks, sitting at 72% for the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC still leading the way with 7 ranked teams, still having 5 of the top 8.
• Big 12 had two ranked teams drop out this week, now standing with 4 ranked.  Who would have thought at the outset of the season that Kansas State would be leading the class of the Big 12 and sitting at #2 in the BCS?
• Pac 12 still with 5 ranked teams, holding out hope for their lone undefeated Oregon at #3.  If Oregon can finish undefeated they should jump Kansas State for the #2 spot and be in the title game in Miami.
• Notre Dame is the independent (no conference affiliation) and back on the national stage this year as they are undefeated and sitting at #4 in the BCS.  However, ND is on the outside looking in for the National Title game as they will need 2 of the other 3 undefeated teams to lose.
• Big 10, ACC, Big East all have 2 ranked teams.  Which of those conferences doesn’t belong?  The Big 10 should be ashamed to be associated with those two weak conferences.

Games to Watch:

We have 3 top 25 match-ups this week.  Plenty of great games to watch, but really only one that could have any major effect on the BCS standings.

• The game of the weekend has to be #15 Texas A&M visiting #1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  The new member to the SEC went on the road last week and was able to beat a decent Mississippi State team as they kept State off-balance with their high flying offense and their incredible freshman QB – “Johnny Football” (Johnny Manziel).  Going on the road again to “The Program” of college FB right now is a whole different game than they are used to in their previous conference – the Big 12.  Alabama on the other side is coming off the biggest game of their slate every year (LSU) in which they had to win on a last minute drive – one for the ages.  Will they be able to get back up for another big match-up this weekend?  Nick Satan has a way of keeping his players focused, but this game should be fun as that A&M offense is hitting on all cylinders and the Bama secondary isn’t as great as it has been in years past.  This should be a great game, but in the end I think Bama will find a way to grab the victory at home.  However, if the newcomer (A&M) is able to pull off the upset – that’ll get the “Johnny Football” for Heisman hype going to an all new level.
• #2 Kansas State is on the road this week against a decent TCU team.  TCU is struggling this year as their week-in, week-out competition in the Big 12 is much more difficult than the high-school conference (otherwise known as the MWC).  Gary Patterson is a great coach and will have his boys ready in Fort Worth, but I think Bill Snyder and Collin Klein will be able to get the hard fought victory. NOTE: Collin Klein left the game last weekend with a speculative head injury (concussion).  If he isn’t 100% this weekend, I could see TCU pulling off the upset and ending Kansas State’s miracle run.  Something to keep an eye on.
• #11 Oregon St. v. #14 Stanford in a Pac 12 tilt with the winner having a legitimate shot at the Rose Bowl.
• #21 Mississippi St. v. #7 LSU in a SEC match-up that has two teams coming off deflating defeats this past weekend.  Mettenberger found his stride last week and should be able to lead his team to a bounce-back W at night in Baton Rouge.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
11/10/2012	11:00 AM	24	Northwestern	v.		Michigan	ESPN	Northwestern
	2:00 PM	11	Oregon St.	v.	14	Stanford	FOX	Stanford
	2:30 PM	15	Texas A&M	v.	1	Alabama	CBS	Alabama
	2:30 PM		Penn State	v.	16	Nebraska	ABC	Nebraska
	6:00 PM	2	Kansas St.	v.		TCU	FOX	Kansas St.
	6:00 PM	21	Mississippi St.	v.	7	LSU	ESPN	LSU
Other Notables:
11/10/2012	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	17	Texas	LHN
	11:00 AM		Kansas	v.	22	Texas Tech
	11:21 AM		LA-Lafayette	v.	6	Florida	SEC

As always it is great to be a Florida Gator!  Tell me your thoughts on this weekends slate of games and show some spirit – who is your team?  Still optimistic?  Already planning for next season?  Either way, college football is the best sport, wear your team proudly.