Week 9: Games to Watch

First off, sorry for the late post.  However, it is kind of fun to write this as I watch College Gameday.  It is definitely one of the best shows on television – top notch producing by Lee Fitting, Chris Fowler is a genius and the crew plays well together.  Truly a joy to watch.  A little bit of crazy, mixed with some knowledge bombs every now and then.

Well, what did I tell you?  Upsets start flooding down between mid-October and the end of November.  Week 7 provided five top 25 upsets, Week 8 topped that with eight top 25 upsets.  The polls have more ups and downs in the last 2 weeks than a teenage girl.  What will this weekend have in store?  The slate of games to watch includes four battles between ranked teams.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/26/2013	2:30 PM	10	Texas Tech	v.	15	Oklahoma	FOX	Oklahoma
	6:00 PM	12	UCLA	v.	3	Oregon	ESPN	Oregon
	6:00 PM	21	South Carolina	v.	5	Missouri	ESPN2	Missouri
	7:00 PM		Penn State	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	9:30 PM	6	Stanford	v.	25	Oregon State	ESPN	Stanford
Other Notables:
	6:30 PM		Texas	v.		TCU	FS1
			Florida				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• Louisville – how sad is that that they couldn’t run the table in the AAC?  #weaksauce
• Missouri – Gary Pinkel deserves a major tip of the cap (or should I say visor).  His team has won each game by 15 points or more.  They are completely in control of the SEC east.  Who would have ever thought that heading into this season?  Sure the typical east contenders (UGA, UF) have been decimated with injuries, but Mizzou has looked good in each contest.  Good luck with Bama in ATL.
• Alabama – speaking of… they seem to be hitting their stride.  Yikes!  #nuffsaid
• Florida State – as hard as it is for me to say this, WOW!  This team looks great and Jameis Winston is the real deal.  They made Clemson look stupid in their own backyard.  Will a rather soft schedule come back to haunt FSU down the stretch in the battle for the #2 spot in the BCS?  Or is the bigger question, can FSU avoid a late season stumble?  FSU and clutch hasn’t been in the same sentence since the 90’s.  This team looks different though.

I went 3-3 on my week 8 picks.  Dropping my pick percentage slightly for the season to 74%.

Week 8 BCS Ranking Thoughts:

• The initial rankings are out in the final season under the BCS.  It only seems fitting that the final year of the BCS could end in catastrophe (i.e. multiple undefeated teams from major conferences).  Below I’ll give quick thoughts on the initial Top 10 BCS teams.
• #1 Bama – is anyone surprised?  The Saban Way is in full stride as they are seeking 3 in a row.
• #2 FSU – this is the “surprise” of the initial rankings as they jumped Oregon from the human polls.  Obviously to this point they have looked the part.  Odds are that if they win out and Oregon wins out, Oregon coming from arguably the toughest conference this year, that Oregon will jump them for the coveted #2 spot.  This seems to be the perfect year to have the 4 team playoff… well the desire for that will only make the wait for next year that much greater.  The playoff can’t seem to get here soon enough.
• #3 Oregon – see above.  They shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they take care of their schedule, albeit a tough schedule.
• #4 Ohio State – I’m not overly impressed with this team.  The Big 10 just seems so soft and has shown that over the last few years in the BCS games.
• #5 Missouri – the other “surprise” here.  If they take care of the schedule, including a meeting with #1 Bama in ATL they they will be playing for the title.  This team looks good, but getting past Bama seems a tall task.
• #6 Stanford – this is the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Speaks to the strength of the Pac-12 as they are ranked ahead of 3 undefeated teams.
• #7 Miami – one of the biggest remaining games in the regular season is next weekend against #2 FSU.  Still think that the relative weakness of the ACC will cause the winner of this game to be looking just on the outside of the coveted #2 spot in the BCS.
• #8 Baylor – this may be the team to watch in the final weeks.  If they can win out, a big IF.  The schedule rises significantly in strength each week.  However if they win out, I think you will hear big screams from Waco as they will likely also be on the outside looking in.  This team could be one of three teams (FSU, OSU and BU) that can’t crack the top 2.
• #9 Clemson – doesn’t look so shiny after getting embarrassed last weekend by #2 FSU.
• #10 Texas Tech – the right mix has happened for this team to crack the initial top 10: pretty coach (see: Ryan Gosling), easy opening schedule (only played one team so far with a winning record – Texas State) and 13 teams over the last two weekends that have been upset.  Sitting in the same situation as #8 Baylor.  Plenty of big IFs remaining (starting today in Norman), I don’t see this holding up.  It is great fun for the Red Raiders with their first year HC, although it seems a little shallow to this point.

Games to Watch – Previews:

From a national championship perspective (which is what every body cares about right?), there is only one game that has big implications directly on the top of the BCS rankings this weekend:

• #12 UCLA v. #3 Oregon – College Gameday is on site.  The line for this game out of Vega is 24.  The largest line for the Games to Watch this weekend.  I don’t see this one being close, as Oregon has only seemed to get better each week.  However, if UCLA can pull off the major upset… then the BCS chaos will get really fun.  (Pick: ORE by 21)
• #21 South Carolina v. #5 Missouri – This is perhaps the most intriguing game this weekend.  Can Missouri effectively win the SEC East this early in the season?  They were picked to be at best 4th in the East and are now on the verge of putting a fork in it.  If South Carolina QB – Connor Shaw plays, this game could come down to the wire.  If not, I think Missouri wins this East.  (Pick: Mizz by 7)
• #10 Texas Tech v. #15 Oklahoma – The last time Texas Tech came to Norman undefeated, Red Raider fans would like to forget.  Tech came in at #2 in the BCS and then #5 OU demolished them 65 – 21.  Can the fate change here?  There is no way this game reaches that level of scoring by OU.  OU is still searching for passing consistency with Blake Bell.  This game will be a close one and very fun to watch.  (Pick: OU by 3)
• #6 Stanford v. #25 Oregon State – Sean Mannion from Oregon State is flying under the radar as he leads the country in passing.  After Oregon State opened the season embarrassingly by losing to FCS Eastern Washington (remember when the FCS showed out against the FBS in week 1?), they have reeled off 6 straight with Mannion passing all over each opponent.  However, this Stanford D is solid at each level.  David Shaw and his bunch will be ready for this one.  I have to admit, the Pac-12 has become fun to watch.  Several years ago I didn’t find that to be the case (exception being USC – is it just me or is Oregon the new USC in the Pac-12?).  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• Penn State v. #4 Ohio State – the Big 10 has become such a lackluster conference in my opinion.  The Big 10 has effectively flipped positions with the Pac-12, two teams at the top and weakness the rest of the way through the conference.  That is how I view the Big 10 now and used to view the Pac-12 a few years ago.  Either way, Penn State is well coached but loses the talent edge here.  You can’t sleep on this Penn State squad ever, they are fighters.  I hope Penn State wins, but I think the Buckeyes will win with talent.  (Pick: OSU by 14)

Which ranked team is going to lose today?  It is inevitable.  #letsgo

One quick video.  This catch from Marquez North, a true-freshman, was one of the best I’ve ever seen.  Tennessee was down by 1 and needed a FG to win.  This catch put them into FG range and the Volunteers got their first big win in what seems like a decade.  This kid will be a monster receiver for the next few years in the SEC.  As a Gator, I hate to admit… but this was one heck of a catch:

FCS / Heisman Talk / Coaching Update

Well it was a little weird to wake up this morning and not have College Gameday to watch.  There is only one D1 (FBS) game today, but the D1-AA (FCS) playoffs are in the quarterfinals.  We also have the Heisman Trophy presentation tonight, along with plenty of coaching updates from the past week.  Plenty of football to fill the gap between now and the bowls.

Last weekend wrap up:

No major upsets last week, so I’ll run through the conference champions.  As expected the SEC Championship was one of the best in the history of the conference championship game and was as close as expected.  Bama knows how to win and they did what they needed to get to Miami.  This sets up what will probably be the most watched national championship in history – two storied programs, one who hasn’t been around for 20 years but that has a fan base that is in the top 5 no doubt.  Mark your calendar for Monday, January 7th – #1 Notre Dame v. #2 Alabama.  It’ll be a game for the ages!

Conference Champions (alphabetical order):

• ACC: #12 Florida State (11-2)… Next game: Orange Bowl v. #15 Northern Illinois
• Big 12: #5 Kansas State (11-1)… Next game: Fiesta Bowl v. #4 Oregon
• Big East: #21 Louisville (10-2)… Next game: Sugar Bowl v. #3 Florida
• Big Ten: Wisconsin (8-5)… Next game: Rose Bowl v. #6 Stanford
• C-USA: Tulsa (10-3)… Next game: Liberty Bowl v. Iowa State
• MAC: #15 Northern Illinois (12-1)… Next game: Orange Bowl v. #12 Florida State
• MWC: #19 Boise State (10-2)… Next game: MAACO Bowl v. Washington
• Pac-12: #6 Stanford (11-2)… Next game: Rose Bowl v. Wisconsin
• SEC: #2 Alabama (12-1)… Next game: National Championship v. #1 Notre Dame
• Sun Belt: Arkansas State (9-3)… Next game: GoDaddy.com Bowl v. #25 Kent State
• WAC: #22 Utah State (10-2)… Next game: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl v. Toledo

I finished last weeks pick at 7-2, leaving me at 69% for the regular season.

BCS Standings Update:

The shocker here is that the unexpected happened, previously #21 Northern Illinois won the MAC championship and then proceeded to rise up inside to top 16… landing at #15 in the BCS.  BCS buster!  This pushed many great teams out of the BCS, namely #7 Georgia, #8 LSU, #9 Texas A&M, #10 South Carolina, #11 Oklahoma… I could go on.  I know there is a limit of 2 teams per conference, but my point is that there is no way in the world that #15 Northern Illinois could be half the teams in the top 25… let alone do they deserve a BCS spot above much better teams.  Just look at the teams behind them in the rankings… can you really say that they are better than say Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan, Texas?  The BCS system has always been flawed but this is by far the worst result that has happened.  I’d even argue that maybe some other teams deserved the #2 slot in the BCS over Alabama, just given the body of work.  I’ll get off my soap box, but I echo Kirk Herbstreit’s thoughts that he vented on the BCS Selection Show last Sunday night “The fact that Northern Illinois is in the BCS in 2012 is really a sad state for college football and where we are in the current system.”  Herbstreit is normally pretty reserved, but he spoke up at the right time.  I agree with his sentiment and am glad we are moving toward the playoff system in 2014.  With that said, here is the BCS Standings Update.

• SEC still leading the way with 6 ranked teams, and yes ALL 6 are in the top 10.  No matter how you look at it, this conference is far and away the best in college football.  Alabama is going to Miami with the chance to win the 7th straight national title for the SEC.  
  
• Pac-12 has 4 ranked teams this week with #4 Oregon being the highest.  However, Oregon didn’t even win the Pac-12 championship and as such #6 Stanford will be the Pac-12’s representative in the Rose Bowl.  Oregon will be playing in the Fiesta Bowl.  Two teams in the BCS bowls, only other conference outside the SEC to claim that.
• Two conferences with 3 ranked teams being the Big 12 and the Big 10, don’t be fooled the Big 12 has 10 teams and the Big 10 has 12 teams.  Confused?  The Big 12’s top team this year is #5 Kansas State, whereas the Big 10’s top team is #16 Nebraska.  Both conferences are down, but the Big 10 is further down.
• Three conferences with 2 ranked teams: ACC, WAC and MAC.  Not much else to say here, other than the fact that the ACC has to be embarrassed at being lumped into the same category as the WAC and MAC.  I will say the MAC has been a fun “Cinderella conference this year. 
• And, we has two conferences with 1 ranked team each, the Big East and MWC.
• The lone independent is #1 Notre Dame looking down at everyone else right now.  Nothing more to say than they are waiting for January 7th to see if they can finish their historic rise back to national prominence by taking care of #2 Alabama in Miami.  Will be a great game!

Coaching Carousel Update:

Last week I ranked the top 5 openings in the country, well as of now they are all filled.  Let’s take a look.

1. Tennessee: Butch Jones was hired away from Cincinnati.  He is well respected in the coaching circles, only time will tell how this hire will work out.  While he was Tennessee’s 4th or 5th choice, he is no chopped liver.  Still crazy that Tennessee had such a struggle getting any of the top candidates on their list, part of this has to be in part to AD Dave Hart having not been to privy to many coaching searches in his time… in 12 years at Florida State he never had to hire a HC.  Bobby Bowden was there the entire time.
2. Arkansas: Bret Bielema was hired away from Wisconsin.  As far as notoriety and previous programs prestige goes, this was the biggest pull for the open coaching positions.  Bret has been very successful at Wisconsin, going to 3 straight Rose Bowls.  There is some sentiment that he struggled with always living in his predecessor, now AD, Barry Alvarez’s shadow.  He is on his own now and will have plenty of resources to win, as will be expected in the SEC.  This looks like a great hire by Arkansas.
3. Auburn: Gus Malzahn was hired away from Arkansas State.  Gus has exactly 1 year of HC experience under his belt at the D1 level.  He is an offensive genius and well respected by many in the profession.  This is a somewhat risky hire by Auburn, but has tremendous upside.  He’s been an OC in the SEC before at both Arkansas and Auburn.
4. NC State: Dave Doeren was hired away from BCS Buster #15 Northern Illinois.  Dave was the hottest name rising from smaller D1 conference teams.  I think this was a great hire.  Debbie Yow, NC State AD, didn’t mess around with this hire.  Dave won the MAC title on Friday night and Debbie was waiting for him Saturday morning when he arrived back at campus.  Within 15 hours of winning the 2nd MAC title in a row for Northern Illinois he was announced as the HC at NC State.
5. California: Sonny Dykes was hired away from LA Tech.  LA Tech has the nation’s #1 offense this year.  Another smaller conference hire that has great upside.  I really like this hire for California.  Sonny is the son of a coach and knows himself some football.

Overall I like all of the hires for various reasons, I really like both the Sonny Dykes and Dave Doeren hires.  Also, stealing away Bielema from Wisky was big time by Auburn.  Should be fun to see how each of these guys do in their new roles.

Heisman Talk:

The ceremony is tonight at 7pm CT on ESPN.  I’ll talk about the 3 candidates below, in the order of how I predict they’ll finish.

1. Johnny Manziel – QB – #9 Texas A&M: a redshirt freshman that has taken the country by storm.  Many “legendary” tales have ensued, on par with Chuck Norris wears Tim Tebow pajamas… remember that one?  Johnny has set the SEC Total Offense record this year, the last 2 that did that won the Heisman (Newton in 2010 and Tebow in 2007).  Why he’ll win: Best QB in the country, setting big time records against the best defenses in the country, in the best conference in the country.  Why he may not: some don’t like voting for younger candidates thinking that they need to prove themselves over more than 1 great year and that they’ll have more chances in their career.  Also, Johnny had a run in with the law over the summer, some voters take into account off the field things of this sort.
2. Manti Te’o – LB – #1 Notre Dame: the heartbeat for undefeated #1 Notre Dame.  Pros: He is the best player on the best team in the country (right now) and has a huge heart off the field, endearing himself to the nation.  Cons: some don’t even see him as the best defender in college football; Jadeveon Clowney and Jarvis Jones are thought by some to be more disruptive.  Also, no true defender has ever won.  Charles Woodson in 1997 was primarily a DB, but played on O and also returned kicks.
3. Collin Klein – QB – #5 Kansas State: I don’t see it here, he has had a great career and has been the entire O for Kansas State the last two years.  But, he couldn’t win a deflated Big 12 and when his team needed him most he played his worst game (3 picks) versus a pathetic Baylor D.

Let the legend of Johnny Football continue to grow.  The real thing I’ll be watching is how he progresses next year going in round 2 against SEC defenses.

Games to Watch:

FCS Playoffs – Quarterfinals

I won’t get into much of this as very few follow the FCS.  I really am just including these so that you can have a brief glance at the final 8 teams.  I’ll post a little commentary next week on the final 4 teams and who I think is the best.  Of the 8 teams remaining (7 as of this post, posting after the Friday night game), all are perennial contenders in the FCS playoffs with the minor exception of #15 Illinois State who pulled a big upset last week over App State.  Keep an eye on #1 North Dakota State they have been dominating teams all year.  I also like #5 Sam Houston State… 2 of their 3 losses have come against FBS opponents.

FBS Game to Watch:

The lone FBS game this weekend is Army v. Navy.  This game has some incredible pageantry and is endeared to most given the tie in of both programs and how they protect our country.  On a national landscape, this game means very little from a football standpoint.  But, this one has bigger meaning behind it than simply football standings – great to see both teams representing our country so well.  As far as the victor goes, I’ll take Navy for the 11th time in a row.  Both teams will rush the ball for 75% of their offense, but I think Navy’s D will be the difference here.

Date	Level	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel
12/7/2012	FCS	7:00 PM	5	Sam Houston State	v.	2	Montana State	ESPN3
12/8/2012	FCS	11:00 AM	7	Georgia Southern	v.	3	Old Dominion	ESPN
	FCS	2:00 PM	9	Wofford	v.	1	North Dakota State	ESPN3
	FBS	2:00 PM		Navy	v.		Army	CBS
	FCS	5:00 PM	15	Illinois State	v.	4	Eastern Washington	ESPN3

This weeks post is a little late, I’ll admit I had a little mild-depression (kidding) that the regular season was over and thus didn’t have much drive to post this week.  However, there is still plenty of college football to talk through.  This week is more of an update no the landscape of college football, versus games to watch.  Nonetheless there are still some things college football fans can get behind this weekend… Navy v. Army is great.  The mixing of what is great about our country and college football together.  Hope you enjoyed the update.  We’ll discuss some FCS next week in more detail, for those die-hard college football fans that care even about that.

As always, Go Gators!