Week 9: Games to Watch

First off, sorry for the late post.  However, it is kind of fun to write this as I watch College Gameday.  It is definitely one of the best shows on television – top notch producing by Lee Fitting, Chris Fowler is a genius and the crew plays well together.  Truly a joy to watch.  A little bit of crazy, mixed with some knowledge bombs every now and then.

Well, what did I tell you?  Upsets start flooding down between mid-October and the end of November.  Week 7 provided five top 25 upsets, Week 8 topped that with eight top 25 upsets.  The polls have more ups and downs in the last 2 weeks than a teenage girl.  What will this weekend have in store?  The slate of games to watch includes four battles between ranked teams.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/26/2013	2:30 PM	10	Texas Tech	v.	15	Oklahoma	FOX	Oklahoma
	6:00 PM	12	UCLA	v.	3	Oregon	ESPN	Oregon
	6:00 PM	21	South Carolina	v.	5	Missouri	ESPN2	Missouri
	7:00 PM		Penn State	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	9:30 PM	6	Stanford	v.	25	Oregon State	ESPN	Stanford
Other Notables:
	6:30 PM		Texas	v.		TCU	FS1
			Florida				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• Louisville – how sad is that that they couldn’t run the table in the AAC?  #weaksauce
• Missouri – Gary Pinkel deserves a major tip of the cap (or should I say visor).  His team has won each game by 15 points or more.  They are completely in control of the SEC east.  Who would have ever thought that heading into this season?  Sure the typical east contenders (UGA, UF) have been decimated with injuries, but Mizzou has looked good in each contest.  Good luck with Bama in ATL.
• Alabama – speaking of… they seem to be hitting their stride.  Yikes!  #nuffsaid
• Florida State – as hard as it is for me to say this, WOW!  This team looks great and Jameis Winston is the real deal.  They made Clemson look stupid in their own backyard.  Will a rather soft schedule come back to haunt FSU down the stretch in the battle for the #2 spot in the BCS?  Or is the bigger question, can FSU avoid a late season stumble?  FSU and clutch hasn’t been in the same sentence since the 90’s.  This team looks different though.

I went 3-3 on my week 8 picks.  Dropping my pick percentage slightly for the season to 74%.

Week 8 BCS Ranking Thoughts:

• The initial rankings are out in the final season under the BCS.  It only seems fitting that the final year of the BCS could end in catastrophe (i.e. multiple undefeated teams from major conferences).  Below I’ll give quick thoughts on the initial Top 10 BCS teams.
• #1 Bama – is anyone surprised?  The Saban Way is in full stride as they are seeking 3 in a row.
• #2 FSU – this is the “surprise” of the initial rankings as they jumped Oregon from the human polls.  Obviously to this point they have looked the part.  Odds are that if they win out and Oregon wins out, Oregon coming from arguably the toughest conference this year, that Oregon will jump them for the coveted #2 spot.  This seems to be the perfect year to have the 4 team playoff… well the desire for that will only make the wait for next year that much greater.  The playoff can’t seem to get here soon enough.
• #3 Oregon – see above.  They shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they take care of their schedule, albeit a tough schedule.
• #4 Ohio State – I’m not overly impressed with this team.  The Big 10 just seems so soft and has shown that over the last few years in the BCS games.
• #5 Missouri – the other “surprise” here.  If they take care of the schedule, including a meeting with #1 Bama in ATL they they will be playing for the title.  This team looks good, but getting past Bama seems a tall task.
• #6 Stanford – this is the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Speaks to the strength of the Pac-12 as they are ranked ahead of 3 undefeated teams.
• #7 Miami – one of the biggest remaining games in the regular season is next weekend against #2 FSU.  Still think that the relative weakness of the ACC will cause the winner of this game to be looking just on the outside of the coveted #2 spot in the BCS.
• #8 Baylor – this may be the team to watch in the final weeks.  If they can win out, a big IF.  The schedule rises significantly in strength each week.  However if they win out, I think you will hear big screams from Waco as they will likely also be on the outside looking in.  This team could be one of three teams (FSU, OSU and BU) that can’t crack the top 2.
• #9 Clemson – doesn’t look so shiny after getting embarrassed last weekend by #2 FSU.
• #10 Texas Tech – the right mix has happened for this team to crack the initial top 10: pretty coach (see: Ryan Gosling), easy opening schedule (only played one team so far with a winning record – Texas State) and 13 teams over the last two weekends that have been upset.  Sitting in the same situation as #8 Baylor.  Plenty of big IFs remaining (starting today in Norman), I don’t see this holding up.  It is great fun for the Red Raiders with their first year HC, although it seems a little shallow to this point.

Games to Watch – Previews:

From a national championship perspective (which is what every body cares about right?), there is only one game that has big implications directly on the top of the BCS rankings this weekend:

• #12 UCLA v. #3 Oregon – College Gameday is on site.  The line for this game out of Vega is 24.  The largest line for the Games to Watch this weekend.  I don’t see this one being close, as Oregon has only seemed to get better each week.  However, if UCLA can pull off the major upset… then the BCS chaos will get really fun.  (Pick: ORE by 21)
• #21 South Carolina v. #5 Missouri – This is perhaps the most intriguing game this weekend.  Can Missouri effectively win the SEC East this early in the season?  They were picked to be at best 4th in the East and are now on the verge of putting a fork in it.  If South Carolina QB – Connor Shaw plays, this game could come down to the wire.  If not, I think Missouri wins this East.  (Pick: Mizz by 7)
• #10 Texas Tech v. #15 Oklahoma – The last time Texas Tech came to Norman undefeated, Red Raider fans would like to forget.  Tech came in at #2 in the BCS and then #5 OU demolished them 65 – 21.  Can the fate change here?  There is no way this game reaches that level of scoring by OU.  OU is still searching for passing consistency with Blake Bell.  This game will be a close one and very fun to watch.  (Pick: OU by 3)
• #6 Stanford v. #25 Oregon State – Sean Mannion from Oregon State is flying under the radar as he leads the country in passing.  After Oregon State opened the season embarrassingly by losing to FCS Eastern Washington (remember when the FCS showed out against the FBS in week 1?), they have reeled off 6 straight with Mannion passing all over each opponent.  However, this Stanford D is solid at each level.  David Shaw and his bunch will be ready for this one.  I have to admit, the Pac-12 has become fun to watch.  Several years ago I didn’t find that to be the case (exception being USC – is it just me or is Oregon the new USC in the Pac-12?).  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• Penn State v. #4 Ohio State – the Big 10 has become such a lackluster conference in my opinion.  The Big 10 has effectively flipped positions with the Pac-12, two teams at the top and weakness the rest of the way through the conference.  That is how I view the Big 10 now and used to view the Pac-12 a few years ago.  Either way, Penn State is well coached but loses the talent edge here.  You can’t sleep on this Penn State squad ever, they are fighters.  I hope Penn State wins, but I think the Buckeyes will win with talent.  (Pick: OSU by 14)

Which ranked team is going to lose today?  It is inevitable.  #letsgo

One quick video.  This catch from Marquez North, a true-freshman, was one of the best I’ve ever seen.  Tennessee was down by 1 and needed a FG to win.  This catch put them into FG range and the Volunteers got their first big win in what seems like a decade.  This kid will be a monster receiver for the next few years in the SEC.  As a Gator, I hate to admit… but this was one heck of a catch:

Week 8: Games to Watch

The closer we get to December the bigger the pressure gets.  Last weekend we saw five top 25 teams get upset and several others get tested for the first time all season.  This weekend provides some incredible games as well.  Four top 25 match-ups, with one of those being effectively an elimination game from national championship contention.  See below for the games to watch.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/18/2013	7:00 PM		UCF	v.	8	Louisville	ESPN	Louisville
10/19/2013	11:21 AM	22	Florida	v.	14	Missouri	SEC	Missouri
	2:30 PM	9	UCLA	v.	13	Stanford	ABC	Stanford
	2:30 PM	24	Auburn	v.	7	Texas A&M	CBS	Texas A&M
	6:30 PM		USC	v.		Notre Dame	NBC	USC
	7:00 PM	5	Florida St.	v.	3	Clemson	ABC	Florida St.
Other Notables:
	11:00 AM	16	Texas Tech	v.		West Virginia	FS1
			Texas				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• LSU drew up the blue print to expose my Gators biggest weakness – the offensive line.  With the 82nd ranked offense, teams know to stack the box and make us throw the ball.  Tyler Murphy is adequate at throwing the ball, but with a stacked box, comes blitzes on passing downs and the O-Line looked like Swiss cheese.
• UT finally wins big in the Red River Rivalry.  What a great way for this team to come out fighting to send Mack Brown out with a victory, in what many believe will be his last Red River Rivalry.
• Baylor faced their first somewhat decent opponent and only won by 10 (for BU that is close).  As I mentioned last week, their schedule only gets more tough as the season progresses.  Can they continue to throw up video game numbers offensively?  Each week is a bigger test, even in a down Big 12.
• Oregon and Marcus Mariota looked really good in their first big contest of the season – defeating #16 Washington by 21 points.  Look out!  They too have a tough road ahead in the Pac-12 – which is likely the 2nd best conference in the nation this year (some would argue the best, over the SEC).  This team is good!!!
• Stanford got taken from the undefeated ranks by Utah.  Big loss for the Cardinals.  Can they bounce back this week against a very tough UCLA team?
• The injuries for UGA finally caught up with them.  And, the team that has flown the most under the radar this year – Missouri – finally put it to the injured Bulldogs.  Missouri didn’t escape without injury however, as they lost their starting QB in the game.  The Tigers are undefeated and now control their destiny in the SEC East.

I went 3-2 on my week 7 picks.  My pick percentage for the season is now at 78%.

Week 7 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Lots of movement this week in the polls with the five top 25 upsets occurring.  MOVING ON UP: Missouri was by far the biggest mover this weekend after knocking off the injured Bulldogs and remaining, a not-so quiet anymore, undefeated.  TUMBLING DOWN: Three teams all moved down about the same in the polls after upset losses – Oklahoma (losing to UT by 16), Georgia (losing to Mizz by 15) and Stanford (losing to unranked Utah by 6).

Games to Watch – Previews:

This weekend’s slate has one big elimination game which matches two top 5 teams, two big SEC games, 1 big Pac-12 game and several other intriguing match-ups:

• #5 Florida State v. #3 Clemson – This is the first HUGE match-up of the season.  The meeting will take place in Death Valley – two great offenses, both teams are loaded with talent (see preview video below).  The winner of this game is in the drivers seat for the ACC crown and possible national championship spot.  The loser of this game is eliminated from the national championship hunt, in all reality.  Can the freshmen phenom QB from FSU (Jameis Winston) continue his incredible season?  Or does Tajh Boyd the veteran, senior QB for Clemson put it on the rookie?  This game will be a close one.  I think the biggest thing to watch will be whether or not Clemson’s D-Line can get pressure on the young QB?  If they can, I think they can disrupt his offensive flow just enough to squeak this one out, if not… I look for FSU to take this one.  (Pick: FSU by 3)

• #22 Florida v. #14 Missouri – Mizzou is undefeated and in the drivers seat in the SEC East.  The storyline here is the #3 ranked UF defense versus the redshirt freshman QB from Mizzou.  Maty Mauk is the QB of this undefeated team now, the senior – James Franklin – injured his shoulder last week and will likely miss the remainder of the season.  The rage out of Columbia is that Maty is “better” than James Franklin (meet Maty in the video below).  We’ll see on Saturday as it won’t take much offense to win, because my Gators can’t score at all.  (Pick: UF by 3)

• #9 UCLA v. #13 Stanford – Can Stanford rebound after a disappointing loss to the unranked Utes last weekend?  I expect the Cardinals to come out with a chip on their shoulder.  However, this UCLA team is very well coached (Jim Mora) and will be up for this game as well.  This one should be exciting to watch.  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• #24 Auburn v. #7 Texas A&M – Auburn is another SEC team that has flown under the radar this year.  If Johnny Football plays around with the football (carrying it like a loaf of bread) like he did last week, Auburn could pull the upset in College Station.  The Aggie boys better suit up for this one, the Tigers may be under the radar but don’t take this team lightly.  Another thing to remember is that Johnny was hurt last week against Ole Miss on a non-contact throw (see video below).  He better hope Jake Matthews (OT) can keep the lauded Auburn freshman – Carl Lawson out of his ear all day.  (Pick: A&M by 7)

• USC v. Notre Dame – I know neither team is ranked, which is a story in and of itself.  Nonetheless, this is two storied programs that will be going at it on Saturday.  If for some reason, the BIG game (#3 v. #5) gets out of hand then this is a good backup option on NBC during the primetime window.  No one will be watching this one, but it’ll be a good ole football contest.  (Pick: USC by 3)

Buckle up!  The season is just getting good.  At this point there are still 12-14 teams with a shot at the National Championship.  In a few weeks, that number will be reduced drastically.  Here we go.

Week 7: Games to Watch

Hey, hey!  I’m back in the USA.  And, we have another great college football weekend on the way.  There are three top 25 match-ups and two other intriguing games to keep an eye on.  This is the time of year that the cream starts to rise!  Who will it be?

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/12/2013	11:00 AM	12	Oklahoma	v.		Texas	ABC	Oklahoma
	11:00 AM	25	Missouri	v.	7	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:30 PM	17	Florida	v.	10	LSU	CBS	LSU
	3:00 PM	2	Oregon	v.	16	Washington	FS1	Oregon
	7:30 PM	9	Texas A&M	v.		Ole Miss	ESPN	Texas A&M
Other Notables:
10/12/2013	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	20	Texas Tech	FS1

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

I haven’t watched any college football games for 2 weekends.  So I’ll pass on “wrap-up” for this post.  Instead I’ll add some ramblings I have in my mind simply from headlines, scores over the last 2 weekends.

• Mack Brown – UT Head Coach: Will this be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry?  Talk is that if the Longhorns lose tomorrow, he will announce his impending “retirement” in the next few weeks.
• Lane Kiffin – former USC Head Coach: the Head Coach who has done nothing in every HC job he has held.  He actually has made USC somewhat irrelevant.  That in itself is rather impressive.  Just a few short years back, USC got any recruit west of the Rockies that they wanted.  Talent in abundance and 10+ win seasons were the norm.  Now, well they have become an afterthought in the Pac-12 – Oregon, Stanford, Washington.
• Tyler Murphy – UF Starting Quarterback: I know it is only 2.75 games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, but his average QBR for those games is 94.3.  That ranks him 4th nationally, behind the likes of Bryce Petty (Baylor), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Aaron Murray (Georgia).  He has been efficient and avoided turnovers, sounds like the perfect QB for a team with the best defense in the country.  His play on the road tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be the decisive point in this game.
• Baylor Bears – this offense has looked video game like.  Wow!  The Bears now have the 3rd best odds according to Vegas to win the National Championship.  Who would have ever thought that we’d see that?  Two things to keep in mind: (1) those odds reflect the fact that the Big 12 is really down this year, thus the likelihood they make it through the regular season undefeated is higher than other teams in competitive conferences and (2) so far Baylor has played a strength of schedule north of 120+, their remaining schedule is south of 25-.  The tests are coming, even if they are from a down Big 12.

I went 6-0 on my week 6 picks.  On a nice little roll, that is sure to come crashing down shortly.  My picks are now sitting at 82% for the season.

Week 6 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Summary for the last 2 weeks is that there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, particularly in the top 15.  No big upsets have happened, etc.  Expect the cream to start to rise in the coming weeks.  The BCS comes out after this weekend of play.  We’ll have some ranking news to talk about next week.

Games to Watch – Previews:

Three big SEC matches, along with one big game each from the Big 12 and the Pac-12.  The weekend is packed with some really intriguing games to watch:

• #12 Oklahoma v. Texas – storyline here seems to be whether or not this will be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas has lost the last 3 by an average of 30+ PPG and has lost 9 of the last 13 in the series.  Another loss in this series tomorrow and you very well may see Mack announce his “retirement” in the coming weeks.  Either way this game is always fun to watch.  Major rivalry that always seems to have that special feel.  (Pick: Oklahoma by 14+)
• #25 Missouri v. #7 Georgia – I think this game will be closer than many might think on the surface.  Missouri has flown under the radar so far this year.  Georgia has plenty of O, but needs some D.  Can Missouri finally get a big win in the SEC?  Georgia needs this game to keep the reigns in the SEC East.  (Pick: Georgia by 6-7)
• #17 Florida v. #10 LSU – LSU has a stellar O this year (#6 nationally), loaded with NFL talent at each position group – a reversal from last year.  UF has a stellar D as always (#1 nationally).  Things to watch: (1) Tyler Murphy – can he stay cool in his first big road start? (2) Gators run D – has still looked good, but seems to be a little more susceptible now that Easley is lost for the year. (3) Tigers run O – can they move the ball on the ground against the Gators D-Line?  They need to stay on schedule so that Mettenberger doesn’t have to throw into the vaunted Gator secondary too much.  (Pick: LSU by 3)
• #2 Oregon v. #16 Washington – the line on this game has grown to near -14 for Oregon.  I like this Washington team, they are scrappy and play well under Sarkisan.  I expect this game to be closer to a 7 point game.  Anytime you get close to that 1 possession line then anything can happen.  (Pick: Oregon by 7)
• #9 Texas A&M v. Ole Miss – Ole Miss is young and super talented.  Can they put together a defining win for this highly regarded freshman class?  Last year in Oxford they took A&M down to the wire, A&M winning by 3.  I expect a similar game this year.  Ole Miss is better this year, A&M is about the same as last year.  Should be a lot of points on the board.  (Pick: Texas A&M by 7)

Oh boy!  College football makes me happy, happy, happy (Duck Dynasty reference – see video below if you don’t already know).