Week 7: Games to Watch

Hey, hey!  I’m back in the USA.  And, we have another great college football weekend on the way.  There are three top 25 match-ups and two other intriguing games to keep an eye on.  This is the time of year that the cream starts to rise!  Who will it be?

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/12/2013	11:00 AM	12	Oklahoma	v.		Texas	ABC	Oklahoma
	11:00 AM	25	Missouri	v.	7	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:30 PM	17	Florida	v.	10	LSU	CBS	LSU
	3:00 PM	2	Oregon	v.	16	Washington	FS1	Oregon
	7:30 PM	9	Texas A&M	v.		Ole Miss	ESPN	Texas A&M
Other Notables:
10/12/2013	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	20	Texas Tech	FS1

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

I haven’t watched any college football games for 2 weekends.  So I’ll pass on “wrap-up” for this post.  Instead I’ll add some ramblings I have in my mind simply from headlines, scores over the last 2 weekends.

• Mack Brown – UT Head Coach: Will this be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry?  Talk is that if the Longhorns lose tomorrow, he will announce his impending “retirement” in the next few weeks.
• Lane Kiffin – former USC Head Coach: the Head Coach who has done nothing in every HC job he has held.  He actually has made USC somewhat irrelevant.  That in itself is rather impressive.  Just a few short years back, USC got any recruit west of the Rockies that they wanted.  Talent in abundance and 10+ win seasons were the norm.  Now, well they have become an afterthought in the Pac-12 – Oregon, Stanford, Washington.
• Tyler Murphy – UF Starting Quarterback: I know it is only 2.75 games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, but his average QBR for those games is 94.3.  That ranks him 4th nationally, behind the likes of Bryce Petty (Baylor), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Aaron Murray (Georgia).  He has been efficient and avoided turnovers, sounds like the perfect QB for a team with the best defense in the country.  His play on the road tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be the decisive point in this game.
• Baylor Bears – this offense has looked video game like.  Wow!  The Bears now have the 3rd best odds according to Vegas to win the National Championship.  Who would have ever thought that we’d see that?  Two things to keep in mind: (1) those odds reflect the fact that the Big 12 is really down this year, thus the likelihood they make it through the regular season undefeated is higher than other teams in competitive conferences and (2) so far Baylor has played a strength of schedule north of 120+, their remaining schedule is south of 25-.  The tests are coming, even if they are from a down Big 12.

I went 6-0 on my week 6 picks.  On a nice little roll, that is sure to come crashing down shortly.  My picks are now sitting at 82% for the season.

Week 6 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Summary for the last 2 weeks is that there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, particularly in the top 15.  No big upsets have happened, etc.  Expect the cream to start to rise in the coming weeks.  The BCS comes out after this weekend of play.  We’ll have some ranking news to talk about next week.

Games to Watch – Previews:

Three big SEC matches, along with one big game each from the Big 12 and the Pac-12.  The weekend is packed with some really intriguing games to watch:

• #12 Oklahoma v. Texas – storyline here seems to be whether or not this will be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas has lost the last 3 by an average of 30+ PPG and has lost 9 of the last 13 in the series.  Another loss in this series tomorrow and you very well may see Mack announce his “retirement” in the coming weeks.  Either way this game is always fun to watch.  Major rivalry that always seems to have that special feel.  (Pick: Oklahoma by 14+)
• #25 Missouri v. #7 Georgia – I think this game will be closer than many might think on the surface.  Missouri has flown under the radar so far this year.  Georgia has plenty of O, but needs some D.  Can Missouri finally get a big win in the SEC?  Georgia needs this game to keep the reigns in the SEC East.  (Pick: Georgia by 6-7)
• #17 Florida v. #10 LSU – LSU has a stellar O this year (#6 nationally), loaded with NFL talent at each position group – a reversal from last year.  UF has a stellar D as always (#1 nationally).  Things to watch: (1) Tyler Murphy – can he stay cool in his first big road start? (2) Gators run D – has still looked good, but seems to be a little more susceptible now that Easley is lost for the year. (3) Tigers run O – can they move the ball on the ground against the Gators D-Line?  They need to stay on schedule so that Mettenberger doesn’t have to throw into the vaunted Gator secondary too much.  (Pick: LSU by 3)
• #2 Oregon v. #16 Washington – the line on this game has grown to near -14 for Oregon.  I like this Washington team, they are scrappy and play well under Sarkisan.  I expect this game to be closer to a 7 point game.  Anytime you get close to that 1 possession line then anything can happen.  (Pick: Oregon by 7)
• #9 Texas A&M v. Ole Miss – Ole Miss is young and super talented.  Can they put together a defining win for this highly regarded freshman class?  Last year in Oxford they took A&M down to the wire, A&M winning by 3.  I expect a similar game this year.  Ole Miss is better this year, A&M is about the same as last year.  Should be a lot of points on the board.  (Pick: Texas A&M by 7)

Oh boy!  College football makes me happy, happy, happy (Duck Dynasty reference – see video below if you don’t already know).