Week 8: Games to Watch

The closer we get to December the bigger the pressure gets.  Last weekend we saw five top 25 teams get upset and several others get tested for the first time all season.  This weekend provides some incredible games as well.  Four top 25 match-ups, with one of those being effectively an elimination game from national championship contention.  See below for the games to watch.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/18/2013	7:00 PM		UCF	v.	8	Louisville	ESPN	Louisville
10/19/2013	11:21 AM	22	Florida	v.	14	Missouri	SEC	Missouri
	2:30 PM	9	UCLA	v.	13	Stanford	ABC	Stanford
	2:30 PM	24	Auburn	v.	7	Texas A&M	CBS	Texas A&M
	6:30 PM		USC	v.		Notre Dame	NBC	USC
	7:00 PM	5	Florida St.	v.	3	Clemson	ABC	Florida St.
Other Notables:
	11:00 AM	16	Texas Tech	v.		West Virginia	FS1
			Texas				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• LSU drew up the blue print to expose my Gators biggest weakness – the offensive line.  With the 82nd ranked offense, teams know to stack the box and make us throw the ball.  Tyler Murphy is adequate at throwing the ball, but with a stacked box, comes blitzes on passing downs and the O-Line looked like Swiss cheese.
• UT finally wins big in the Red River Rivalry.  What a great way for this team to come out fighting to send Mack Brown out with a victory, in what many believe will be his last Red River Rivalry.
• Baylor faced their first somewhat decent opponent and only won by 10 (for BU that is close).  As I mentioned last week, their schedule only gets more tough as the season progresses.  Can they continue to throw up video game numbers offensively?  Each week is a bigger test, even in a down Big 12.
• Oregon and Marcus Mariota looked really good in their first big contest of the season – defeating #16 Washington by 21 points.  Look out!  They too have a tough road ahead in the Pac-12 – which is likely the 2nd best conference in the nation this year (some would argue the best, over the SEC).  This team is good!!!
• Stanford got taken from the undefeated ranks by Utah.  Big loss for the Cardinals.  Can they bounce back this week against a very tough UCLA team?
• The injuries for UGA finally caught up with them.  And, the team that has flown the most under the radar this year – Missouri – finally put it to the injured Bulldogs.  Missouri didn’t escape without injury however, as they lost their starting QB in the game.  The Tigers are undefeated and now control their destiny in the SEC East.

I went 3-2 on my week 7 picks.  My pick percentage for the season is now at 78%.

Week 7 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Lots of movement this week in the polls with the five top 25 upsets occurring.  MOVING ON UP: Missouri was by far the biggest mover this weekend after knocking off the injured Bulldogs and remaining, a not-so quiet anymore, undefeated.  TUMBLING DOWN: Three teams all moved down about the same in the polls after upset losses – Oklahoma (losing to UT by 16), Georgia (losing to Mizz by 15) and Stanford (losing to unranked Utah by 6).

Games to Watch – Previews:

This weekend’s slate has one big elimination game which matches two top 5 teams, two big SEC games, 1 big Pac-12 game and several other intriguing match-ups:

• #5 Florida State v. #3 Clemson – This is the first HUGE match-up of the season.  The meeting will take place in Death Valley – two great offenses, both teams are loaded with talent (see preview video below).  The winner of this game is in the drivers seat for the ACC crown and possible national championship spot.  The loser of this game is eliminated from the national championship hunt, in all reality.  Can the freshmen phenom QB from FSU (Jameis Winston) continue his incredible season?  Or does Tajh Boyd the veteran, senior QB for Clemson put it on the rookie?  This game will be a close one.  I think the biggest thing to watch will be whether or not Clemson’s D-Line can get pressure on the young QB?  If they can, I think they can disrupt his offensive flow just enough to squeak this one out, if not… I look for FSU to take this one.  (Pick: FSU by 3)

• #22 Florida v. #14 Missouri – Mizzou is undefeated and in the drivers seat in the SEC East.  The storyline here is the #3 ranked UF defense versus the redshirt freshman QB from Mizzou.  Maty Mauk is the QB of this undefeated team now, the senior – James Franklin – injured his shoulder last week and will likely miss the remainder of the season.  The rage out of Columbia is that Maty is “better” than James Franklin (meet Maty in the video below).  We’ll see on Saturday as it won’t take much offense to win, because my Gators can’t score at all.  (Pick: UF by 3)

• #9 UCLA v. #13 Stanford – Can Stanford rebound after a disappointing loss to the unranked Utes last weekend?  I expect the Cardinals to come out with a chip on their shoulder.  However, this UCLA team is very well coached (Jim Mora) and will be up for this game as well.  This one should be exciting to watch.  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• #24 Auburn v. #7 Texas A&M – Auburn is another SEC team that has flown under the radar this year.  If Johnny Football plays around with the football (carrying it like a loaf of bread) like he did last week, Auburn could pull the upset in College Station.  The Aggie boys better suit up for this one, the Tigers may be under the radar but don’t take this team lightly.  Another thing to remember is that Johnny was hurt last week against Ole Miss on a non-contact throw (see video below).  He better hope Jake Matthews (OT) can keep the lauded Auburn freshman – Carl Lawson out of his ear all day.  (Pick: A&M by 7)

• USC v. Notre Dame – I know neither team is ranked, which is a story in and of itself.  Nonetheless, this is two storied programs that will be going at it on Saturday.  If for some reason, the BIG game (#3 v. #5) gets out of hand then this is a good backup option on NBC during the primetime window.  No one will be watching this one, but it’ll be a good ole football contest.  (Pick: USC by 3)

Buckle up!  The season is just getting good.  At this point there are still 12-14 teams with a shot at the National Championship.  In a few weeks, that number will be reduced drastically.  Here we go.

Week 7: Games to Watch

Hey, hey!  I’m back in the USA.  And, we have another great college football weekend on the way.  There are three top 25 match-ups and two other intriguing games to keep an eye on.  This is the time of year that the cream starts to rise!  Who will it be?

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/12/2013	11:00 AM	12	Oklahoma	v.		Texas	ABC	Oklahoma
	11:00 AM	25	Missouri	v.	7	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:30 PM	17	Florida	v.	10	LSU	CBS	LSU
	3:00 PM	2	Oregon	v.	16	Washington	FS1	Oregon
	7:30 PM	9	Texas A&M	v.		Ole Miss	ESPN	Texas A&M
Other Notables:
10/12/2013	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	20	Texas Tech	FS1

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

I haven’t watched any college football games for 2 weekends.  So I’ll pass on “wrap-up” for this post.  Instead I’ll add some ramblings I have in my mind simply from headlines, scores over the last 2 weekends.

• Mack Brown – UT Head Coach: Will this be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry?  Talk is that if the Longhorns lose tomorrow, he will announce his impending “retirement” in the next few weeks.
• Lane Kiffin – former USC Head Coach: the Head Coach who has done nothing in every HC job he has held.  He actually has made USC somewhat irrelevant.  That in itself is rather impressive.  Just a few short years back, USC got any recruit west of the Rockies that they wanted.  Talent in abundance and 10+ win seasons were the norm.  Now, well they have become an afterthought in the Pac-12 – Oregon, Stanford, Washington.
• Tyler Murphy – UF Starting Quarterback: I know it is only 2.75 games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, but his average QBR for those games is 94.3.  That ranks him 4th nationally, behind the likes of Bryce Petty (Baylor), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Aaron Murray (Georgia).  He has been efficient and avoided turnovers, sounds like the perfect QB for a team with the best defense in the country.  His play on the road tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be the decisive point in this game.
• Baylor Bears – this offense has looked video game like.  Wow!  The Bears now have the 3rd best odds according to Vegas to win the National Championship.  Who would have ever thought that we’d see that?  Two things to keep in mind: (1) those odds reflect the fact that the Big 12 is really down this year, thus the likelihood they make it through the regular season undefeated is higher than other teams in competitive conferences and (2) so far Baylor has played a strength of schedule north of 120+, their remaining schedule is south of 25-.  The tests are coming, even if they are from a down Big 12.

I went 6-0 on my week 6 picks.  On a nice little roll, that is sure to come crashing down shortly.  My picks are now sitting at 82% for the season.

Week 6 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Summary for the last 2 weeks is that there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, particularly in the top 15.  No big upsets have happened, etc.  Expect the cream to start to rise in the coming weeks.  The BCS comes out after this weekend of play.  We’ll have some ranking news to talk about next week.

Games to Watch – Previews:

Three big SEC matches, along with one big game each from the Big 12 and the Pac-12.  The weekend is packed with some really intriguing games to watch:

• #12 Oklahoma v. Texas – storyline here seems to be whether or not this will be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas has lost the last 3 by an average of 30+ PPG and has lost 9 of the last 13 in the series.  Another loss in this series tomorrow and you very well may see Mack announce his “retirement” in the coming weeks.  Either way this game is always fun to watch.  Major rivalry that always seems to have that special feel.  (Pick: Oklahoma by 14+)
• #25 Missouri v. #7 Georgia – I think this game will be closer than many might think on the surface.  Missouri has flown under the radar so far this year.  Georgia has plenty of O, but needs some D.  Can Missouri finally get a big win in the SEC?  Georgia needs this game to keep the reigns in the SEC East.  (Pick: Georgia by 6-7)
• #17 Florida v. #10 LSU – LSU has a stellar O this year (#6 nationally), loaded with NFL talent at each position group – a reversal from last year.  UF has a stellar D as always (#1 nationally).  Things to watch: (1) Tyler Murphy – can he stay cool in his first big road start? (2) Gators run D – has still looked good, but seems to be a little more susceptible now that Easley is lost for the year. (3) Tigers run O – can they move the ball on the ground against the Gators D-Line?  They need to stay on schedule so that Mettenberger doesn’t have to throw into the vaunted Gator secondary too much.  (Pick: LSU by 3)
• #2 Oregon v. #16 Washington – the line on this game has grown to near -14 for Oregon.  I like this Washington team, they are scrappy and play well under Sarkisan.  I expect this game to be closer to a 7 point game.  Anytime you get close to that 1 possession line then anything can happen.  (Pick: Oregon by 7)
• #9 Texas A&M v. Ole Miss – Ole Miss is young and super talented.  Can they put together a defining win for this highly regarded freshman class?  Last year in Oxford they took A&M down to the wire, A&M winning by 3.  I expect a similar game this year.  Ole Miss is better this year, A&M is about the same as last year.  Should be a lot of points on the board.  (Pick: Texas A&M by 7)

Oh boy!  College football makes me happy, happy, happy (Duck Dynasty reference – see video below if you don’t already know).

Week 3: Games to Watch

There is a rather big game in College Station this weekend.  You may have heard something about it?  This week we have a solid Thursday night game and then Saturday features the most hyped September game that we have seen for some time.  I am baking some wings and propping my feet up for the big game in College Station.  See below for detailed previews of the games to watch

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/12/2013	6:30 PM	24	TCU	v.		Texas Tech	ESPN	Texas Tech
9/14/2013	11:00 AM	16	UCLA	v.	23	Nebraska	ABC	Nebraska
	2:30 PM	1	Alabama	v.	6	Texas A&M	CBS	Alabama
	7:00 PM	25	Ole Miss	v.		Texas	LHN	Ole Miss
Other notables:
9/14/2013		18	Florida				BYE

Last weekend wrap-up:

• I’ll lead on a positive note.  Which teams have impressed me the most through 2 weeks?  I’d have to say Oregon and Clemson.  Oregon hasn’t missed a beat under new HC Mark Helfrich.  Chip Kelly left a full cupboard and the new HC has kept this team on track.  Big time showdown late in the season against Stanford.  Clemson opened the season with a solid W against Georgia and seems to be clicking on all cylinders.  I am not saying these are the two best teams, just the most impressive through 2 weeks.  A close 3rd would have to be Baylor, Art Briles can coach ’em up.
• Speaking of Georgia, they had the toughest opening two weeks I can remember.  Both were top 10 opponents.  Props to Georgia for taking the challenge and fighting big early.  After a close loss last week, Georgia rebounded nicely and defeated #6 South Carolina.  Impressive bounce back.
• Flop #1 – Opponent Inflicted: UT got demolished by the ground game of BYU… yes you read that right.  BYU set a school record for rushing yards in a game w/ 550!!!  That is also the most a Texas defense has ever given up in it’s storied history.  The Texas D was the worst in school history last year and didn’t appear to be any better this year, which resulted in DC Manny Diaz getting fired after week 2.  That was an ugly game to watch for Longhorns fans.  Saturday in Austin it doesn’t get any better with a young Ole Miss team coming in to face a Texas team trying to get back on track w/ a new DC and the starting QB possibly out.  The word out of Austin is that “the succession plan” has been put into motion, meaning this should be Mack Brown’s last year as HC in Austin.  At year’s end Mack will “retire”.  The hunt for the next HC will be a fun one to watch.
• Flop #2 – Self Inflicted: If I told you a team (team #1) more than doubled up the other team in first downs at 22 to 10.  Team #1 was 6/15 on third down conversions while the other team converted just 1/11.  Team #1 had 413 yards of offense while the other team almost half at 212 yards, with just 69 yards gained total in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters.  Team #1 passed for 291 yards while the other 162 yards.  Team #1 QB completed 66% of his passes while the other team’s QB completed less than 50% (48%).  Team #1 averaged 8.8 per completion vs. 6.5 for the other team.  Team #1 rushed for 122 yards, while the other managed just 50 yards rushing for the day.  Team #1 controlled the entire game with the ball for 38:20 minutes the other team held the ball for just 21:40.  How many points would you tell me Team #1 dominated by?  Well that same team had 5 turnovers and was 2/6 in the red zone for only 10 points on those trips – the 4 failed trips ended with 3 TOs and a stopped on downs (4th and 1).  Team #1 lost by 5.  Team #1 would be my beloved Gators.  Dominated every facet of the game except the scoreboard, thanks to foolish turnovers and sloppy penalties.

I went 0-3 on my picks (yuck), now sitting at 56% for the early season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: Biggest mover this week is Miami moving up 11 spots in the AP, along with Michigan moving up 5 spots.  ND and South Carolina dropped the furthest, moving down 7 spots.  The two newest members of the AP poll are Miami after defeating my Gators and Ole Miss after a solid start to the season w/ plenty of freshman contributing early.
• Coaches Poll: Again the biggest mover here is Miami moving up 6 spots.  Florida dropped the further moving down 11 spots this week, after the disappointing defeat at Miami.  The two newest members of the Coaches poll are Ole Miss as seen in the AP poll and Baylor moving into the rankings after continuing to WOW with that offense.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We have 2 top 25 match-ups this weekend, but there is one big time game that everyone will be watching.

• #1 Alabama v. #6 Texas A&M – well this has to be the most hyped September game that I can remember for some time.  College Gameday is in town.  CBS will have a “Johnny Cam”.  Everyone is talking about it and has been since Texas A&M went into Tuscaloosa last year and escaped with a 5 point win.  This game has so many story lines so I won’t repeat them for you.  Whatever you do make sure you are in front of a TV at 2:30 on Saturday.  This one is big time football.  Alabama is coming to town for atonement.  Can Johnny keep up his magic on the field?  Can Saban’s troops get what they feel was taken from them last year?  I have a feeling their will be a collective “Roll Tide” echoing around College Station after the game on Saturday (remember Bama fans travel well).  I think the Crimson Tide will be on point and pull this out with a double digit victory.  I have many people who think that is crazy, but that is why you play the games on the field not in advanced statistical analysis.  According to Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings this is the nation’s #2 Offense vs. #2 Defense.  #gameon
• #24 TCU v. Texas Tech – a Thursday night Big 12 showdown in Lubbock.  Lubbock is no easy place to travel, much less on a week night.  This will be a fun game to watch.  Texas Tech is lead at QB by a walk-on true-freshman who has looked like anything but a walk-on so far – 780 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT thru 2 games.  TCU lost their starting QB again.  The backup has 9 career starts so he has experience.  Can Devonte Fields and the TCU D keep this close?  I think this game will come down to the last few minutes.
• #16 UCLA v. #23 Nebraska – an early season Pac 12 / Big 10 showdown.  Jim Mora is entering his second season at the helm for UCLA and looked to already be moving the program in the right direction last year.  Can they go on the road and win a tough early season contest?  Big questions to answer as Mora is building this program his way.  Which Nebraska team will show up on Saturday?  This team seems so erratic since Pelini took over at HC.  The vaunted Nebraska “Blackshirt” defenses are long in the rear view mirror.  Can this team defend their turf and repay UCLA for the defeat in week 2 last year when Nebraska traveled out west to LA?  A good 11am kickoff game for the viewing pleasure.
• #25 Ole Miss v. Texas – Texas will be hoping for the comforts of home after a brutal defeat in Provo, UT at the hands of BYU last week.  Can the Texas D get it together?  How will the firing of the DC affect this already reeling D?  Will David Ash (starting QB) play?  These are the questions facing Texas this week.  On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss comes to town with some very talented youngsters.  After the best recruiting haul that Ole Miss has ever seen last year, some of these true freshman are already making big time impacts for this team.  The arrows are trending up for this young team under HC Hugh Freeze.  Can they continue the trend up on the road against a perennial powerhouse – even if they are not quite up to their own standards right now?  Will be a fun game to throw on the tube after the big 2:30 match-up in College Station. (NOTE: I changed my pick for this game above, UT Starting QB David Ash is officially out for the game on Saturday.  Based on this, I am picking Ole Miss.  I already thought the game would be close, but this flips it for me)