Week 3: Games to Watch

There is a rather big game in College Station this weekend.  You may have heard something about it?  This week we have a solid Thursday night game and then Saturday features the most hyped September game that we have seen for some time.  I am baking some wings and propping my feet up for the big game in College Station.  See below for detailed previews of the games to watch

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/12/2013	6:30 PM	24	TCU	v.		Texas Tech	ESPN	Texas Tech
9/14/2013	11:00 AM	16	UCLA	v.	23	Nebraska	ABC	Nebraska
	2:30 PM	1	Alabama	v.	6	Texas A&M	CBS	Alabama
	7:00 PM	25	Ole Miss	v.		Texas	LHN	Ole Miss
Other notables:
9/14/2013		18	Florida				BYE

Last weekend wrap-up:

• I’ll lead on a positive note.  Which teams have impressed me the most through 2 weeks?  I’d have to say Oregon and Clemson.  Oregon hasn’t missed a beat under new HC Mark Helfrich.  Chip Kelly left a full cupboard and the new HC has kept this team on track.  Big time showdown late in the season against Stanford.  Clemson opened the season with a solid W against Georgia and seems to be clicking on all cylinders.  I am not saying these are the two best teams, just the most impressive through 2 weeks.  A close 3rd would have to be Baylor, Art Briles can coach ’em up.
• Speaking of Georgia, they had the toughest opening two weeks I can remember.  Both were top 10 opponents.  Props to Georgia for taking the challenge and fighting big early.  After a close loss last week, Georgia rebounded nicely and defeated #6 South Carolina.  Impressive bounce back.
• Flop #1 – Opponent Inflicted: UT got demolished by the ground game of BYU… yes you read that right.  BYU set a school record for rushing yards in a game w/ 550!!!  That is also the most a Texas defense has ever given up in it’s storied history.  The Texas D was the worst in school history last year and didn’t appear to be any better this year, which resulted in DC Manny Diaz getting fired after week 2.  That was an ugly game to watch for Longhorns fans.  Saturday in Austin it doesn’t get any better with a young Ole Miss team coming in to face a Texas team trying to get back on track w/ a new DC and the starting QB possibly out.  The word out of Austin is that “the succession plan” has been put into motion, meaning this should be Mack Brown’s last year as HC in Austin.  At year’s end Mack will “retire”.  The hunt for the next HC will be a fun one to watch.
• Flop #2 – Self Inflicted: If I told you a team (team #1) more than doubled up the other team in first downs at 22 to 10.  Team #1 was 6/15 on third down conversions while the other team converted just 1/11.  Team #1 had 413 yards of offense while the other team almost half at 212 yards, with just 69 yards gained total in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters.  Team #1 passed for 291 yards while the other 162 yards.  Team #1 QB completed 66% of his passes while the other team’s QB completed less than 50% (48%).  Team #1 averaged 8.8 per completion vs. 6.5 for the other team.  Team #1 rushed for 122 yards, while the other managed just 50 yards rushing for the day.  Team #1 controlled the entire game with the ball for 38:20 minutes the other team held the ball for just 21:40.  How many points would you tell me Team #1 dominated by?  Well that same team had 5 turnovers and was 2/6 in the red zone for only 10 points on those trips – the 4 failed trips ended with 3 TOs and a stopped on downs (4th and 1).  Team #1 lost by 5.  Team #1 would be my beloved Gators.  Dominated every facet of the game except the scoreboard, thanks to foolish turnovers and sloppy penalties.

I went 0-3 on my picks (yuck), now sitting at 56% for the early season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: Biggest mover this week is Miami moving up 11 spots in the AP, along with Michigan moving up 5 spots.  ND and South Carolina dropped the furthest, moving down 7 spots.  The two newest members of the AP poll are Miami after defeating my Gators and Ole Miss after a solid start to the season w/ plenty of freshman contributing early.
• Coaches Poll: Again the biggest mover here is Miami moving up 6 spots.  Florida dropped the further moving down 11 spots this week, after the disappointing defeat at Miami.  The two newest members of the Coaches poll are Ole Miss as seen in the AP poll and Baylor moving into the rankings after continuing to WOW with that offense.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We have 2 top 25 match-ups this weekend, but there is one big time game that everyone will be watching.

• #1 Alabama v. #6 Texas A&M – well this has to be the most hyped September game that I can remember for some time.  College Gameday is in town.  CBS will have a “Johnny Cam”.  Everyone is talking about it and has been since Texas A&M went into Tuscaloosa last year and escaped with a 5 point win.  This game has so many story lines so I won’t repeat them for you.  Whatever you do make sure you are in front of a TV at 2:30 on Saturday.  This one is big time football.  Alabama is coming to town for atonement.  Can Johnny keep up his magic on the field?  Can Saban’s troops get what they feel was taken from them last year?  I have a feeling their will be a collective “Roll Tide” echoing around College Station after the game on Saturday (remember Bama fans travel well).  I think the Crimson Tide will be on point and pull this out with a double digit victory.  I have many people who think that is crazy, but that is why you play the games on the field not in advanced statistical analysis.  According to Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings this is the nation’s #2 Offense vs. #2 Defense.  #gameon
• #24 TCU v. Texas Tech – a Thursday night Big 12 showdown in Lubbock.  Lubbock is no easy place to travel, much less on a week night.  This will be a fun game to watch.  Texas Tech is lead at QB by a walk-on true-freshman who has looked like anything but a walk-on so far – 780 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT thru 2 games.  TCU lost their starting QB again.  The backup has 9 career starts so he has experience.  Can Devonte Fields and the TCU D keep this close?  I think this game will come down to the last few minutes.
• #16 UCLA v. #23 Nebraska – an early season Pac 12 / Big 10 showdown.  Jim Mora is entering his second season at the helm for UCLA and looked to already be moving the program in the right direction last year.  Can they go on the road and win a tough early season contest?  Big questions to answer as Mora is building this program his way.  Which Nebraska team will show up on Saturday?  This team seems so erratic since Pelini took over at HC.  The vaunted Nebraska “Blackshirt” defenses are long in the rear view mirror.  Can this team defend their turf and repay UCLA for the defeat in week 2 last year when Nebraska traveled out west to LA?  A good 11am kickoff game for the viewing pleasure.
• #25 Ole Miss v. Texas – Texas will be hoping for the comforts of home after a brutal defeat in Provo, UT at the hands of BYU last week.  Can the Texas D get it together?  How will the firing of the DC affect this already reeling D?  Will David Ash (starting QB) play?  These are the questions facing Texas this week.  On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss comes to town with some very talented youngsters.  After the best recruiting haul that Ole Miss has ever seen last year, some of these true freshman are already making big time impacts for this team.  The arrows are trending up for this young team under HC Hugh Freeze.  Can they continue the trend up on the road against a perennial powerhouse – even if they are not quite up to their own standards right now?  Will be a fun game to throw on the tube after the big 2:30 match-up in College Station. (NOTE: I changed my pick for this game above, UT Starting QB David Ash is officially out for the game on Saturday.  Based on this, I am picking Ole Miss.  I already thought the game would be close, but this flips it for me)