Week 8: Games to Watch

The closer we get to December the bigger the pressure gets.  Last weekend we saw five top 25 teams get upset and several others get tested for the first time all season.  This weekend provides some incredible games as well.  Four top 25 match-ups, with one of those being effectively an elimination game from national championship contention.  See below for the games to watch.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/18/2013	7:00 PM		UCF	v.	8	Louisville	ESPN	Louisville
10/19/2013	11:21 AM	22	Florida	v.	14	Missouri	SEC	Missouri
	2:30 PM	9	UCLA	v.	13	Stanford	ABC	Stanford
	2:30 PM	24	Auburn	v.	7	Texas A&M	CBS	Texas A&M
	6:30 PM		USC	v.		Notre Dame	NBC	USC
	7:00 PM	5	Florida St.	v.	3	Clemson	ABC	Florida St.
Other Notables:
	11:00 AM	16	Texas Tech	v.		West Virginia	FS1
			Texas				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• LSU drew up the blue print to expose my Gators biggest weakness – the offensive line.  With the 82nd ranked offense, teams know to stack the box and make us throw the ball.  Tyler Murphy is adequate at throwing the ball, but with a stacked box, comes blitzes on passing downs and the O-Line looked like Swiss cheese.
• UT finally wins big in the Red River Rivalry.  What a great way for this team to come out fighting to send Mack Brown out with a victory, in what many believe will be his last Red River Rivalry.
• Baylor faced their first somewhat decent opponent and only won by 10 (for BU that is close).  As I mentioned last week, their schedule only gets more tough as the season progresses.  Can they continue to throw up video game numbers offensively?  Each week is a bigger test, even in a down Big 12.
• Oregon and Marcus Mariota looked really good in their first big contest of the season – defeating #16 Washington by 21 points.  Look out!  They too have a tough road ahead in the Pac-12 – which is likely the 2nd best conference in the nation this year (some would argue the best, over the SEC).  This team is good!!!
• Stanford got taken from the undefeated ranks by Utah.  Big loss for the Cardinals.  Can they bounce back this week against a very tough UCLA team?
• The injuries for UGA finally caught up with them.  And, the team that has flown the most under the radar this year – Missouri – finally put it to the injured Bulldogs.  Missouri didn’t escape without injury however, as they lost their starting QB in the game.  The Tigers are undefeated and now control their destiny in the SEC East.

I went 3-2 on my week 7 picks.  My pick percentage for the season is now at 78%.

Week 7 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Lots of movement this week in the polls with the five top 25 upsets occurring.  MOVING ON UP: Missouri was by far the biggest mover this weekend after knocking off the injured Bulldogs and remaining, a not-so quiet anymore, undefeated.  TUMBLING DOWN: Three teams all moved down about the same in the polls after upset losses – Oklahoma (losing to UT by 16), Georgia (losing to Mizz by 15) and Stanford (losing to unranked Utah by 6).

Games to Watch – Previews:

This weekend’s slate has one big elimination game which matches two top 5 teams, two big SEC games, 1 big Pac-12 game and several other intriguing match-ups:

• #5 Florida State v. #3 Clemson – This is the first HUGE match-up of the season.  The meeting will take place in Death Valley – two great offenses, both teams are loaded with talent (see preview video below).  The winner of this game is in the drivers seat for the ACC crown and possible national championship spot.  The loser of this game is eliminated from the national championship hunt, in all reality.  Can the freshmen phenom QB from FSU (Jameis Winston) continue his incredible season?  Or does Tajh Boyd the veteran, senior QB for Clemson put it on the rookie?  This game will be a close one.  I think the biggest thing to watch will be whether or not Clemson’s D-Line can get pressure on the young QB?  If they can, I think they can disrupt his offensive flow just enough to squeak this one out, if not… I look for FSU to take this one.  (Pick: FSU by 3)

• #22 Florida v. #14 Missouri – Mizzou is undefeated and in the drivers seat in the SEC East.  The storyline here is the #3 ranked UF defense versus the redshirt freshman QB from Mizzou.  Maty Mauk is the QB of this undefeated team now, the senior – James Franklin – injured his shoulder last week and will likely miss the remainder of the season.  The rage out of Columbia is that Maty is “better” than James Franklin (meet Maty in the video below).  We’ll see on Saturday as it won’t take much offense to win, because my Gators can’t score at all.  (Pick: UF by 3)

• #9 UCLA v. #13 Stanford – Can Stanford rebound after a disappointing loss to the unranked Utes last weekend?  I expect the Cardinals to come out with a chip on their shoulder.  However, this UCLA team is very well coached (Jim Mora) and will be up for this game as well.  This one should be exciting to watch.  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• #24 Auburn v. #7 Texas A&M – Auburn is another SEC team that has flown under the radar this year.  If Johnny Football plays around with the football (carrying it like a loaf of bread) like he did last week, Auburn could pull the upset in College Station.  The Aggie boys better suit up for this one, the Tigers may be under the radar but don’t take this team lightly.  Another thing to remember is that Johnny was hurt last week against Ole Miss on a non-contact throw (see video below).  He better hope Jake Matthews (OT) can keep the lauded Auburn freshman – Carl Lawson out of his ear all day.  (Pick: A&M by 7)

• USC v. Notre Dame – I know neither team is ranked, which is a story in and of itself.  Nonetheless, this is two storied programs that will be going at it on Saturday.  If for some reason, the BIG game (#3 v. #5) gets out of hand then this is a good backup option on NBC during the primetime window.  No one will be watching this one, but it’ll be a good ole football contest.  (Pick: USC by 3)

Buckle up!  The season is just getting good.  At this point there are still 12-14 teams with a shot at the National Championship.  In a few weeks, that number will be reduced drastically.  Here we go.

Week 7: Games to Watch

Hey, hey!  I’m back in the USA.  And, we have another great college football weekend on the way.  There are three top 25 match-ups and two other intriguing games to keep an eye on.  This is the time of year that the cream starts to rise!  Who will it be?

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/12/2013	11:00 AM	12	Oklahoma	v.		Texas	ABC	Oklahoma
	11:00 AM	25	Missouri	v.	7	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:30 PM	17	Florida	v.	10	LSU	CBS	LSU
	3:00 PM	2	Oregon	v.	16	Washington	FS1	Oregon
	7:30 PM	9	Texas A&M	v.		Ole Miss	ESPN	Texas A&M
Other Notables:
10/12/2013	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	20	Texas Tech	FS1

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

I haven’t watched any college football games for 2 weekends.  So I’ll pass on “wrap-up” for this post.  Instead I’ll add some ramblings I have in my mind simply from headlines, scores over the last 2 weekends.

• Mack Brown – UT Head Coach: Will this be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry?  Talk is that if the Longhorns lose tomorrow, he will announce his impending “retirement” in the next few weeks.
• Lane Kiffin – former USC Head Coach: the Head Coach who has done nothing in every HC job he has held.  He actually has made USC somewhat irrelevant.  That in itself is rather impressive.  Just a few short years back, USC got any recruit west of the Rockies that they wanted.  Talent in abundance and 10+ win seasons were the norm.  Now, well they have become an afterthought in the Pac-12 – Oregon, Stanford, Washington.
• Tyler Murphy – UF Starting Quarterback: I know it is only 2.75 games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, but his average QBR for those games is 94.3.  That ranks him 4th nationally, behind the likes of Bryce Petty (Baylor), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Aaron Murray (Georgia).  He has been efficient and avoided turnovers, sounds like the perfect QB for a team with the best defense in the country.  His play on the road tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be the decisive point in this game.
• Baylor Bears – this offense has looked video game like.  Wow!  The Bears now have the 3rd best odds according to Vegas to win the National Championship.  Who would have ever thought that we’d see that?  Two things to keep in mind: (1) those odds reflect the fact that the Big 12 is really down this year, thus the likelihood they make it through the regular season undefeated is higher than other teams in competitive conferences and (2) so far Baylor has played a strength of schedule north of 120+, their remaining schedule is south of 25-.  The tests are coming, even if they are from a down Big 12.

I went 6-0 on my week 6 picks.  On a nice little roll, that is sure to come crashing down shortly.  My picks are now sitting at 82% for the season.

Week 6 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Summary for the last 2 weeks is that there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, particularly in the top 15.  No big upsets have happened, etc.  Expect the cream to start to rise in the coming weeks.  The BCS comes out after this weekend of play.  We’ll have some ranking news to talk about next week.

Games to Watch – Previews:

Three big SEC matches, along with one big game each from the Big 12 and the Pac-12.  The weekend is packed with some really intriguing games to watch:

• #12 Oklahoma v. Texas – storyline here seems to be whether or not this will be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas has lost the last 3 by an average of 30+ PPG and has lost 9 of the last 13 in the series.  Another loss in this series tomorrow and you very well may see Mack announce his “retirement” in the coming weeks.  Either way this game is always fun to watch.  Major rivalry that always seems to have that special feel.  (Pick: Oklahoma by 14+)
• #25 Missouri v. #7 Georgia – I think this game will be closer than many might think on the surface.  Missouri has flown under the radar so far this year.  Georgia has plenty of O, but needs some D.  Can Missouri finally get a big win in the SEC?  Georgia needs this game to keep the reigns in the SEC East.  (Pick: Georgia by 6-7)
• #17 Florida v. #10 LSU – LSU has a stellar O this year (#6 nationally), loaded with NFL talent at each position group – a reversal from last year.  UF has a stellar D as always (#1 nationally).  Things to watch: (1) Tyler Murphy – can he stay cool in his first big road start? (2) Gators run D – has still looked good, but seems to be a little more susceptible now that Easley is lost for the year. (3) Tigers run O – can they move the ball on the ground against the Gators D-Line?  They need to stay on schedule so that Mettenberger doesn’t have to throw into the vaunted Gator secondary too much.  (Pick: LSU by 3)
• #2 Oregon v. #16 Washington – the line on this game has grown to near -14 for Oregon.  I like this Washington team, they are scrappy and play well under Sarkisan.  I expect this game to be closer to a 7 point game.  Anytime you get close to that 1 possession line then anything can happen.  (Pick: Oregon by 7)
• #9 Texas A&M v. Ole Miss – Ole Miss is young and super talented.  Can they put together a defining win for this highly regarded freshman class?  Last year in Oxford they took A&M down to the wire, A&M winning by 3.  I expect a similar game this year.  Ole Miss is better this year, A&M is about the same as last year.  Should be a lot of points on the board.  (Pick: Texas A&M by 7)

Oh boy!  College football makes me happy, happy, happy (Duck Dynasty reference – see video below if you don’t already know).

Week 13: Games to Watch (Rivalry Weekend / Thanksgiving)

Thanksgiving is here.  Enjoy this time with your family and friends.  I hope each of you has a blessed day tomorrow and enjoys the weekend ahead with some incredible college football match-ups and some pretty good NFL games on tomorrow as well.

This weekend is rivalry weekend, by my count there are at least 16 legitimate rivalries that will be played this weekend.  Most of these are rivalries within state boundaries.  This will add plenty of excitement to an incredible weekend… probably the best weekend all year for college football fans to watch the tube.

Given that it is Thanksgiving weekend, I am going to add a little NFL flavor to this weeks post.  Just so everyone knows what football games are on to watch tomorrow amidst the turkey, dressing and many naps.

Last weekend wrap up:

All I can say is wow!  Two weekends in a row the #1 team in the country has gone down and this past weekend we had both #1 and #2 go down.  This is the 3rd time in the BCS Era (since 1997) that the top 2 teams have lost in the same weekend, it happened twice in 2007.  Notre Dame is now officially on upset watch as the new #1.  November is crazy!

• #1 Kansas State got absolutely owned by un-ranked Baylor down in Waco, to the tune of 4 TDs.  I was never a fan of Kansas State as a national title contender, I do have all the respect in the world for Bill Snyder.  However I just never was that impressed with their team.  So seeing them lose didn’t surprise me, but how they lost was what surprised me.
• #2 Oregon got beat in OT by the ever tough #13 Stanford Cardinals.  Stanford was able to contain the mighty Oregon offense to 14 points in regulation.  In OT, Oregon missed a field goal off of the upright and Stanford made their FG.  Game over!  What made all of this weekend so exciting was that #1 and #2 lost within minutes of each other.  It almost had a March Madness feeling to it, switching channels back and forth seeing if the two Goliaths were going to get beaten.  After Kansas State lost, ND was into the top 2.  After Oregon lost, Alabama rose back into the top 2.  I wasn’t liking the national title match-up last week, but love the current match-up if it holds – #1 ND v. #2 Alabama.  But, there is a lot of football to be played.
• #18 USC got handled pretty easily by #17 UCLA for the battle of LA.  UCLA cruised out to a 28 point lead and was able to hold the lead and finished out the W by 10 points.  Does this finally put the dagger in Kiffin?  This guy has done nothing at all of his coaching stops.  And, now he had the pre-season AP #1 and his team now has 4 losses.  The mighty Trojans are a long shot from the height of the Pete Carroll era, which seems like forever ago now.

By far my worst weekend yet, I went 1-4 on my picks.  I’m okay with this because I love college football and the crazy upsets that are inevitable.  This leaves me sitting at 67% so far on the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC leads the way gain with 6 ranked teams.  3 of the top 4 and 5 of the top 10.  Just an absolute dominance in the rankings.  With Alabama back in the top 2 – could the SEC make it 7 straight national titles?
• The Pac-12 also has 6 ranked teams, again they are spread all over the top 25.  The top team is now #5 Oregon, being book-ended by #25 Washington.  The median of the Pac-12 teams is a 16, versus the SEC median increasing to 5.5 this week.
• The Big 12 lost one ranked team this week, sliding back to 4 ranked teams.  Their lone jewel last week at #1, Kansas State is now #6 after a shellacking in Waco.
• The lone independent is now the #1 team in the country.  The #1 Notre Dame fighting Irish are leading the pack and one win away from a trip to Miami.  This is the first time Notre Dame has been atop the rankings since 1993 – 19 years in waiting.  The buzz in South Bend is palpable!
• Again we have the Big 10, ACC and Big East each with 2 ranked teams.  Nothing more to say here. (copied from last week, literally)
• The two surprise conferences in the rankings are the MWC and the MAC each with one team.

BCS Scenarios – not all of them, but the ones that should be watched the most.

• #1 Notre Dame – it is as simple as winning in LA on Saturday night and the Irish are headed to the title game in Miami.  See comments below about this match-up.
• #2 Alabama – has to beat their arch rival Auburn which is horrendous this year at 3-8 overall and 0-7 in the SEC.  After taking care of Auburn, ‘Bama must take care of #3 UGA in the SEC Championship game.  That will be a fun game to watch, but should ‘Bama win out they are headed to Miami as well.
• #3 Georgia – has to beat their inner-state rival Georgia Tech on Saturday and then has to knock off #2 Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  They have two tough games on their schedule remaining, but they control their own destiny, win out and they are in the national title game.
• #4 Florida – even as a huge Gator, I have to say that we are the least pretty #4 ranked team ever.  Incredible on defense and special teams, but horrendous on offense.  The most incredible thing about my Gators is that they have heart, fight and know how to win, despite one of the toughest schedules in the country this year.  With that said, if we can somehow find a way to beat #10 FSU on Saturday and #1 ND somehow loses to USC then we will more than likely make it in.  There is an outside chance the human element props Oregon up enough to raise them over us in the BCS rankings, because their is a sentiment of not wanting an all SEC national title game again.  The point being only 3 teams control their destiny, UF being the first that does not.

Games to Watch:

There are 5 top 25 match-ups this weekend and a slew of great rivalry games.  This really is my favorite weekend to watch all year.  In a rivalry, only one thing is going on in each teams mind… smash your rival’s season with a crushing end of the year defeat!  Pride drives it all – everyone wants the right to one year of pride in beating their rival (and if you can, annihilate them on the scoreboard in the process).  These games get ugly and have history that make it even uglier (sometimes in the stands too).

As I mentioned above, for your ease I have included the 3 Thanksgiving Day NFL games as a part of the below summary so that you can easily not miss any football tomorrow!

Thanksgiving Day

• We no longer have Texas A&M vs. Texas on Thanksgiving Day.  I think it’s dumb that Texas disintegrated that rivalry, the college football fans lose.  And, Texas has to be glad they did… because A&M looks like they would own Texas this year!  Off my soapbox, Thanksgiving Day college football now gives us TCU v. #16 Texas.  A new state rivalry that most are hoping can over time provide the sparks of the lost rivalry mentioned above.  Marketers are dubbing this one – “Instant Classic.”  We’ll see on that one, but some good Turkey day college football viewing nonetheless.

Rivalries with no BCS implication:

• On Friday, you have the Battle for the Golden Boot as #7 LSU and the Mad-Hatter going over to Fayetteville to play Arkansas.  Does Bobby Petrino look like the coach of the year or what, after seeing this team fall apart without him on the sidelines?  Much in the same way the Saints look without Sean Payton.  LSU should pick up the win here as the Razorbacks look helpless again without Petrino.
• #19 Michigan heads to The Horseshoe to meet unranked Ohio State (reminder: OSU is on probation, so they aren’t ranked in the BCS.  In the AP they are ranked #4).  Denard Robinson should be back for this one, but no one knows exactly what role.  He’ll more than likely play WR, RB, QB, etc.  Michigan ended a 7 game losing streak last year at home, but I think Ohio State wins this one in a game that is decided by a touchdown or less.  Braxton Miller has really improved steadily all year.  Great rivalry with tons of college football pageantry.  Dot the “i”!
• The Bedlam Series features #21 Oklahoma State v. #13 Oklahoma this year.  Can OU take back the reigns of this rivalry, after losing last year for the first time in the previous 9?  OU is also playing for the Big 12 title and a possible BCS bowl game.  This will be a very close and hard fought game, but I’m going with the Sooners at home.
• #8 Stanford v. #17 UCLA.  Both teams are coming off big wins.  Stanford over then #2 Oregon and UCLA over their inner-city rival USC.  This is another inner-state showdown from Cali.  This game will be really fun to watch and I’ll take UCLA in a close one at home.
• The Battle of The Palmetto State features #12 South Carolina v. #11 Clemson this year.  This is one of the best match-ups ranking wise in the 105 year history of this game.  Over the last few years this game has added some spice with both Coaches taking shots at each school through the media.  Should be a good game, but I’ll take Clemson over the Lattimore-less Gamecocks.

Rivalries with BCS implications:

• The Civil War features #5 Oregon vs. #15 Oregon State.  This game has plenty of Pac-12 implications and Rose Bowl implications as well.  Can Oregon bounce back after a disappointing loss to Stanford in OT last week?  I think they do as they need this one to keep their slim chances of a national title shot alive, but this one will be a very close contest.
• #4 Florida travels to Tallahassee to take on #10 FSWho.  This game has the spotlight back on it after a few years of one or the other being under the radar, this is the first time since 2000 that both are ranked in the top 10 coming into this game.  Clearly I’m not a fan of the Seminoles, but think this will be hard game for my Gators to pull off.  Driskel is set to return from a high ankle sprain, after missing last weeks game.  Two great defenses will keep this game close, but in the end ‘the school up north’ has a better offense and wins by 7-10.  Fireworks will be going off in this one.  The Gators need this one bad to keep a shot at the title alive as well.
• Hide your trees ladies and gentlemen – The Iron Bowl.  Auburn heads down to Tuscaloosa to take on #2 Alabama.  This is one of the most heated rivalries in the game, but lacks some luster this year as Auburn is horrible.  This one will be chippy.  Implications here are that ‘Bama needs to win to keep their #2 ranking, wouldn’t that be something if Auburn’s only SEC win this year was against their arch rival, ending their national title hopes.  Auburn will leave it all on the field, but this one shouldn’t be close at all.
• Marquee Match-up: #1 Notre Dame travels to USC.  The Coliseum has been the place where many ND national title hopes have gone to die, 3 times before.  Matt Barkley is out for the Trojans, leaving the big-armed red-shirt freshman Max Wittek at QB.  This one is hard for me to pick from a score standpoint.  I think ND wins as Coach Kelly will have his guys locked in for this one, playing for 20 years of ND fans that haven’t seen this happen in a while.  On one hand, I think ND could run USC off the field.  They play great D and good O, against a USC team that has underperformed in historic proportions this year, with 4 losses already.  But, given the history of this game and that USC is playing to save their season and possibly Kiffin’s job I could see them finally putting their talent together for 4 quarters and making this another historic game in this rivalry.  Either way this is THE marquee game this weekend and will be very fun to watch.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
Thanksgiving	11:30 AM		Texans	v.		Lions	CBS	NFL Game
	3:25 PM		Redskins	v.		Cowboys	FOX	NFL Game
	6:30 PM		TCU	v.	16	Texas	ESPN	Texas
	7:20 PM		Patriots	v.		Jets	NBC	NFL Game
11/23/2012	11:00 AM		Ohio	v.	23	Kent State	ESPNU	Kent State
	1:30 PM	7	LSU	v.		Arkansas	CBS	LSU
11/24/2012	11:00 AM	19	Michigan	v.		Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	11:00 AM		Georgia Tech	v.	3	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:00 PM	5	Oregon	v.	15	Oregon State	Pac 12	Oregon
	2:30 PM	4	Florida	v.	10	Florida State	ABC	Florida State
	2:30 PM		Auburn	v.	2	Alabama	CBS	Alabama
	2:30 PM	21	Oklahoma St.	v.	13	Oklahoma	ESPN	Oklahoma
	5:30 PM	8	Stanford	v.	17	UCLA	FOX	UCLA
	6:00 PM	12	South Carolina	v.	11	Clemson	ESPN	Clemson
	6:00 PM		Missouri	v.	9	Texas A&M	ESPN2	Texas A&M
	7:00 PM	1	Notre Dame	v.		USC	ABC	Notre Dame
Other Notables:
11/24/2012	1:30 PM		Baylor	v.		Texas Tech	FOX

Happy Thanksgiving to all.  We all have tons to be thankful for.  All of which we don’t deserve.As always it is great to be a Florida Gator.  Please pummel the Seminoles this weekend.  Take the rivalry back!As always it is great to be a Florida Gator.  Please pummel the Seminoles this weekend.  Go Gators!

Can you believe I made it through an entire post without mentioned Johnny Football?  Oops.  Next week we’ll take a look at the Heisman front-runners.