Week 7: Games to Watch

Hey, hey!  I’m back in the USA.  And, we have another great college football weekend on the way.  There are three top 25 match-ups and two other intriguing games to keep an eye on.  This is the time of year that the cream starts to rise!  Who will it be?

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/12/2013	11:00 AM	12	Oklahoma	v.		Texas	ABC	Oklahoma
	11:00 AM	25	Missouri	v.	7	Georgia	ESPN	Georgia
	2:30 PM	17	Florida	v.	10	LSU	CBS	LSU
	3:00 PM	2	Oregon	v.	16	Washington	FS1	Oregon
	7:30 PM	9	Texas A&M	v.		Ole Miss	ESPN	Texas A&M
Other Notables:
10/12/2013	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	20	Texas Tech	FS1

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

I haven’t watched any college football games for 2 weekends.  So I’ll pass on “wrap-up” for this post.  Instead I’ll add some ramblings I have in my mind simply from headlines, scores over the last 2 weekends.

• Mack Brown – UT Head Coach: Will this be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry?  Talk is that if the Longhorns lose tomorrow, he will announce his impending “retirement” in the next few weeks.
• Lane Kiffin – former USC Head Coach: the Head Coach who has done nothing in every HC job he has held.  He actually has made USC somewhat irrelevant.  That in itself is rather impressive.  Just a few short years back, USC got any recruit west of the Rockies that they wanted.  Talent in abundance and 10+ win seasons were the norm.  Now, well they have become an afterthought in the Pac-12 – Oregon, Stanford, Washington.
• Tyler Murphy – UF Starting Quarterback: I know it is only 2.75 games against Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas, but his average QBR for those games is 94.3.  That ranks him 4th nationally, behind the likes of Bryce Petty (Baylor), Marcus Mariota (Oregon), Aaron Murray (Georgia).  He has been efficient and avoided turnovers, sounds like the perfect QB for a team with the best defense in the country.  His play on the road tomorrow in Baton Rouge will be the decisive point in this game.
• Baylor Bears – this offense has looked video game like.  Wow!  The Bears now have the 3rd best odds according to Vegas to win the National Championship.  Who would have ever thought that we’d see that?  Two things to keep in mind: (1) those odds reflect the fact that the Big 12 is really down this year, thus the likelihood they make it through the regular season undefeated is higher than other teams in competitive conferences and (2) so far Baylor has played a strength of schedule north of 120+, their remaining schedule is south of 25-.  The tests are coming, even if they are from a down Big 12.

I went 6-0 on my week 6 picks.  On a nice little roll, that is sure to come crashing down shortly.  My picks are now sitting at 82% for the season.

Week 6 Poll Movers and Losers:

• Summary for the last 2 weeks is that there hasn’t been much movement in the polls, particularly in the top 15.  No big upsets have happened, etc.  Expect the cream to start to rise in the coming weeks.  The BCS comes out after this weekend of play.  We’ll have some ranking news to talk about next week.

Games to Watch – Previews:

Three big SEC matches, along with one big game each from the Big 12 and the Pac-12.  The weekend is packed with some really intriguing games to watch:

• #12 Oklahoma v. Texas – storyline here seems to be whether or not this will be Mack Brown’s last game in the Red River Rivalry.  Texas has lost the last 3 by an average of 30+ PPG and has lost 9 of the last 13 in the series.  Another loss in this series tomorrow and you very well may see Mack announce his “retirement” in the coming weeks.  Either way this game is always fun to watch.  Major rivalry that always seems to have that special feel.  (Pick: Oklahoma by 14+)
• #25 Missouri v. #7 Georgia – I think this game will be closer than many might think on the surface.  Missouri has flown under the radar so far this year.  Georgia has plenty of O, but needs some D.  Can Missouri finally get a big win in the SEC?  Georgia needs this game to keep the reigns in the SEC East.  (Pick: Georgia by 6-7)
• #17 Florida v. #10 LSU – LSU has a stellar O this year (#6 nationally), loaded with NFL talent at each position group – a reversal from last year.  UF has a stellar D as always (#1 nationally).  Things to watch: (1) Tyler Murphy – can he stay cool in his first big road start? (2) Gators run D – has still looked good, but seems to be a little more susceptible now that Easley is lost for the year. (3) Tigers run O – can they move the ball on the ground against the Gators D-Line?  They need to stay on schedule so that Mettenberger doesn’t have to throw into the vaunted Gator secondary too much.  (Pick: LSU by 3)
• #2 Oregon v. #16 Washington – the line on this game has grown to near -14 for Oregon.  I like this Washington team, they are scrappy and play well under Sarkisan.  I expect this game to be closer to a 7 point game.  Anytime you get close to that 1 possession line then anything can happen.  (Pick: Oregon by 7)
• #9 Texas A&M v. Ole Miss – Ole Miss is young and super talented.  Can they put together a defining win for this highly regarded freshman class?  Last year in Oxford they took A&M down to the wire, A&M winning by 3.  I expect a similar game this year.  Ole Miss is better this year, A&M is about the same as last year.  Should be a lot of points on the board.  (Pick: Texas A&M by 7)

Oh boy!  College football makes me happy, happy, happy (Duck Dynasty reference – see video below if you don’t already know).

Week 5: Games to Watch

Big weekend on the way.  We have 4 top 25 match-ups to partake in on Saturday.  A slightly down weekend last Saturday, but it picks right back up with some BIG games.  3 of the big 4 are conference games.  The weather (here in TX) is starting to cool a bit, crank up the grill and enjoy the fall transition.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
9/28/2013	2:30 PM	6	LSU	v.	9	Georgia	CBS	Georgia
	2:30 PM	14	Oklahoma	v.	22	Notre Dame	NBC	Oklahoma
	5:30 PM	21	Ole Miss	v.	1	Alabama	ESPN	Alabama
	7:00 PM	23	Wisconsin	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
Other Notables:
9/28/2013	6:00 PM	20	Florida	v.		Kentucky	ESPNU
	6:00 PM	10	Texas A&M	v.		Arkansas	ESPN2
			Texas				BYE
		24	Texas Tech				BYE

Last Weekend Wrap-Up:

• Honestly last weekend didn’t give us too much to talk about in terms of surprises or mega games so I’ll keep this short and sweet this week.
• Florida dominated Tennessee as expected, extending the streak to 9 in a row over the Vols.  The Florida D looks to be the best in the nation.  The D got some bad news on Tuesday as the best defensive player – Dominque Easley – tore his ACL in practice and is out for the season.  Hard news to take for a kid that has worked back from a torn ACL in the last game of the 2011 season.  Great motor and potential top 15 pick.  The D has depth so they will be fine.  Florida also lost their starting QB for the season during the game against Tennessee, as he broke his right leg.  Tyler Murphy came in and the O didn’t seem to miss a beat… maybe even took a step forward.  See video below for highlights/lowlights (injury) of the game:

• Stanford continued to impress as they beat a ranked Arizona State team on Saturday night by 14.  This could show how the Pac 12 championship game will play out.  Very easily could see Stanford and Arizona State meeting again in that game.  Other contenders are Oregon in the North Division w/ Stanford and UCLA in the South Division w/ Arizona State.  The impending Oregon v. Stanford game in Palo Alto on 11/7 continues to shape up as a huge game in not only the Pac-12 race but also with national championship implications.  Game highlights below:

I went 4-0 on my week 4 picks, now sitting at 71% for the season.

Early Season Poll Movers:

• AP Poll: There wasn’t much movement in the polls this week as no upsets occurred in the Top 25.  The biggest move downward is Michigan down 3 spots as they failed to impress as they barely beat a win-less UCONN team.  We have one new member to the AP poll in Fresno State.  Arizona State dropped out after the loss to #5 Stanford.
  
• Coaches Poll: Not much movement here either.  Michigan was also the biggest loser in this poll as well.  There are two new members to the Coaches poll – Wisconsin and Texas Tech.  Both were already ranked in the AP last week so the Coaches is just evening things up a bit.  Arizona State dropped out as seen in the AP, with Michigan State also dropping out after the loss to #21 Notre Dame.

Games to Watch – Previews:

We are back to some BIG time college football games with 4 top 25 match-ups this weekend.  College Gameday is heading to Athens for the battle between the hedges with the Georgia Bulldogs playing host to LSU.  Enough intro, let’s discuss the games to watch.

• #6 LSU v. #9 Georgia – Big top 10 match-up here in the SEC.  Georgia is ranked behind LSU, but I believe they are a slightly better team.  Georgia has played one of the toughest opening schedules in the nation, resulting in their only loss to #3 Clemson.  Both of these teams are stacked with talent at every position and both have looked very impressive in the first 4 weeks of the season.  Can Zach Mettenberger (LSU QB) beat the team he originally signed with?  Side note: his mom works in the football offices at Georgia too.  I think again Zach loses out to Aaron Murray as I’m picking the home team in this one.  Close game, but give me the Bulldogs by 3.
• #14 Oklahoma v. #22 Notre Dame – This game is being played at the same time as the BIG one above, but if you like OU or ND this will be a fun game to watch.  Blake Bell shed some of the stereotype that he can only run – nicknamed the Belldozer – as he passed for 413 yards and 4 TD last week.  The Notre Dame D is much better than that of Tulsa.  However, the OU D is better than that of Notre Dame.  Even though this game is in South Bend, I’ll take OU by 3.  Should be another really close game.
• #21 Ole Miss v. #1 Alabama – The youth of Ole Miss versus the Bama machine.  This Ole Miss team is fun to watch as they have the most talent on the field in their school history.  I think it is a year too early for this young team to travel into Tuscaloosa and take down the #1 team in the nation.  I think Bama will control this game pretty well from start to finish.  Bama wins by 14+.  Next year this game in Oxford will be much closer as these young, highly regarded freshmen from Ole Miss mature over the season.
• #23 Wisconsin v. #4 Ohio State – A great early season Big 10 showdown from the Leaders Division (still hate these divisional names).  Wisconsin is averaging 8.1 yards per rush in the early season, against some weak foes.  Over the last few years OSU has been able to slow the Wisconsin rushing attack big time.  I expect more of the same here.  On the offensive side for OSU is the interesting question of who is playing at QB – Braxton Miller (Heisman hopeful, returning from injury) or Kenny Guiton who set a school record last week with 6 TD passes in the game.  This week the HC for OSU has listed them as co-starters.  Is that due to Miller still recovering or the fact that they may play both?  Either way I expect the Buckeyes to win this one by 7+ at home.

Great game, great games!  Enjoy the weekend loaded with top 25 match-ups.