Week 9: Games to Watch

First off, sorry for the late post.  However, it is kind of fun to write this as I watch College Gameday.  It is definitely one of the best shows on television – top notch producing by Lee Fitting, Chris Fowler is a genius and the crew plays well together.  Truly a joy to watch.  A little bit of crazy, mixed with some knowledge bombs every now and then.

Well, what did I tell you?  Upsets start flooding down between mid-October and the end of November.  Week 7 provided five top 25 upsets, Week 8 topped that with eight top 25 upsets.  The polls have more ups and downs in the last 2 weeks than a teenage girl.  What will this weekend have in store?  The slate of games to watch includes four battles between ranked teams.

Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
10/26/2013	2:30 PM	10	Texas Tech	v.	15	Oklahoma	FOX	Oklahoma
	6:00 PM	12	UCLA	v.	3	Oregon	ESPN	Oregon
	6:00 PM	21	South Carolina	v.	5	Missouri	ESPN2	Missouri
	7:00 PM		Penn State	v.	4	Ohio State	ABC	Ohio State
	9:30 PM	6	Stanford	v.	25	Oregon State	ESPN	Stanford
Other Notables:
	6:30 PM		Texas	v.		TCU	FS1
			Florida				BYE

Last Weekend Ramblings:

Ramblings from my mind after watching a jam-packed weekend of football last weekend.

• Louisville – how sad is that that they couldn’t run the table in the AAC?  #weaksauce
• Missouri – Gary Pinkel deserves a major tip of the cap (or should I say visor).  His team has won each game by 15 points or more.  They are completely in control of the SEC east.  Who would have ever thought that heading into this season?  Sure the typical east contenders (UGA, UF) have been decimated with injuries, but Mizzou has looked good in each contest.  Good luck with Bama in ATL.
• Alabama – speaking of… they seem to be hitting their stride.  Yikes!  #nuffsaid
• Florida State – as hard as it is for me to say this, WOW!  This team looks great and Jameis Winston is the real deal.  They made Clemson look stupid in their own backyard.  Will a rather soft schedule come back to haunt FSU down the stretch in the battle for the #2 spot in the BCS?  Or is the bigger question, can FSU avoid a late season stumble?  FSU and clutch hasn’t been in the same sentence since the 90’s.  This team looks different though.

I went 3-3 on my week 8 picks.  Dropping my pick percentage slightly for the season to 74%.

Week 8 BCS Ranking Thoughts:

• The initial rankings are out in the final season under the BCS.  It only seems fitting that the final year of the BCS could end in catastrophe (i.e. multiple undefeated teams from major conferences).  Below I’ll give quick thoughts on the initial Top 10 BCS teams.
• #1 Bama – is anyone surprised?  The Saban Way is in full stride as they are seeking 3 in a row.
• #2 FSU – this is the “surprise” of the initial rankings as they jumped Oregon from the human polls.  Obviously to this point they have looked the part.  Odds are that if they win out and Oregon wins out, Oregon coming from arguably the toughest conference this year, that Oregon will jump them for the coveted #2 spot.  This seems to be the perfect year to have the 4 team playoff… well the desire for that will only make the wait for next year that much greater.  The playoff can’t seem to get here soon enough.
• #3 Oregon – see above.  They shouldn’t have anything to worry about if they take care of their schedule, albeit a tough schedule.
• #4 Ohio State – I’m not overly impressed with this team.  The Big 10 just seems so soft and has shown that over the last few years in the BCS games.
• #5 Missouri – the other “surprise” here.  If they take care of the schedule, including a meeting with #1 Bama in ATL they they will be playing for the title.  This team looks good, but getting past Bama seems a tall task.
• #6 Stanford – this is the highest ranked 1 loss team.  Speaks to the strength of the Pac-12 as they are ranked ahead of 3 undefeated teams.
• #7 Miami – one of the biggest remaining games in the regular season is next weekend against #2 FSU.  Still think that the relative weakness of the ACC will cause the winner of this game to be looking just on the outside of the coveted #2 spot in the BCS.
• #8 Baylor – this may be the team to watch in the final weeks.  If they can win out, a big IF.  The schedule rises significantly in strength each week.  However if they win out, I think you will hear big screams from Waco as they will likely also be on the outside looking in.  This team could be one of three teams (FSU, OSU and BU) that can’t crack the top 2.
• #9 Clemson – doesn’t look so shiny after getting embarrassed last weekend by #2 FSU.
• #10 Texas Tech – the right mix has happened for this team to crack the initial top 10: pretty coach (see: Ryan Gosling), easy opening schedule (only played one team so far with a winning record – Texas State) and 13 teams over the last two weekends that have been upset.  Sitting in the same situation as #8 Baylor.  Plenty of big IFs remaining (starting today in Norman), I don’t see this holding up.  It is great fun for the Red Raiders with their first year HC, although it seems a little shallow to this point.

Games to Watch – Previews:

From a national championship perspective (which is what every body cares about right?), there is only one game that has big implications directly on the top of the BCS rankings this weekend:

• #12 UCLA v. #3 Oregon – College Gameday is on site.  The line for this game out of Vega is 24.  The largest line for the Games to Watch this weekend.  I don’t see this one being close, as Oregon has only seemed to get better each week.  However, if UCLA can pull off the major upset… then the BCS chaos will get really fun.  (Pick: ORE by 21)
• #21 South Carolina v. #5 Missouri – This is perhaps the most intriguing game this weekend.  Can Missouri effectively win the SEC East this early in the season?  They were picked to be at best 4th in the East and are now on the verge of putting a fork in it.  If South Carolina QB – Connor Shaw plays, this game could come down to the wire.  If not, I think Missouri wins this East.  (Pick: Mizz by 7)
• #10 Texas Tech v. #15 Oklahoma – The last time Texas Tech came to Norman undefeated, Red Raider fans would like to forget.  Tech came in at #2 in the BCS and then #5 OU demolished them 65 – 21.  Can the fate change here?  There is no way this game reaches that level of scoring by OU.  OU is still searching for passing consistency with Blake Bell.  This game will be a close one and very fun to watch.  (Pick: OU by 3)
• #6 Stanford v. #25 Oregon State – Sean Mannion from Oregon State is flying under the radar as he leads the country in passing.  After Oregon State opened the season embarrassingly by losing to FCS Eastern Washington (remember when the FCS showed out against the FBS in week 1?), they have reeled off 6 straight with Mannion passing all over each opponent.  However, this Stanford D is solid at each level.  David Shaw and his bunch will be ready for this one.  I have to admit, the Pac-12 has become fun to watch.  Several years ago I didn’t find that to be the case (exception being USC – is it just me or is Oregon the new USC in the Pac-12?).  (Pick: Stanford by 7)
• Penn State v. #4 Ohio State – the Big 10 has become such a lackluster conference in my opinion.  The Big 10 has effectively flipped positions with the Pac-12, two teams at the top and weakness the rest of the way through the conference.  That is how I view the Big 10 now and used to view the Pac-12 a few years ago.  Either way, Penn State is well coached but loses the talent edge here.  You can’t sleep on this Penn State squad ever, they are fighters.  I hope Penn State wins, but I think the Buckeyes will win with talent.  (Pick: OSU by 14)

Which ranked team is going to lose today?  It is inevitable.  #letsgo

One quick video.  This catch from Marquez North, a true-freshman, was one of the best I’ve ever seen.  Tennessee was down by 1 and needed a FG to win.  This catch put them into FG range and the Volunteers got their first big win in what seems like a decade.  This kid will be a monster receiver for the next few years in the SEC.  As a Gator, I hate to admit… but this was one heck of a catch: