Week 12: Games to Watch

Can this weekend live up to the drama that we saw last weekend?!?!  This game is crazy… love it!

Last weekend wrap-up:

• A&M pulled off the major upset of the season so far.  Nick Satan’s program finally got beaten.  When things like this happen I call it the “collision of circumstances” and in this case many were in favor of A&M which made this one extremely hard for me to pick.  (1) Bama got the heck beat out of them physically by LSU the weekend prior in a major slugfest – A&M should send LSU a major thank you! (2) Bama was coming off an emotional come from behind win over their arch-rival. (3) The one weakness (by Bama standards) was their secondary – A&M is the only team in the SEC, with Sumlin and Johnny Football, that could take advantage. (4) During the game, many mistakes that aren’t typical of Bama happened – turnovers and mental errors (costly penalties, etc.).  This “collision of circumstances” made this game ripe for the picking and A&M sure took advantage.  Even with all of this the game was only won by 5 points.  Bama is still lurking at #4 in the BCS.
• Do we have a new Heisman favorite?  Johnny Football has definitely taken on an aura of itself. This kid will be fun to watch for a few more years in College Station.  Great players make this game extra fun to watch.
• There weren’t any other real upsets or big things to talk about as the other unbeatens that mattered won – Kansas State, Oregon and ND.  I say that mattered, because then #9 and unbeaten Louisville got hammered by Syracuse.

I went 4-2 on my picks, now sitting at 71% for the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC still leading the class with 6 ranked teams… ALL 6 are in the Top 10.
• Pac 12 moves into the second spot as talked about… also with 6 ranked teams.  The Pac 12 teams are all over the Top 25, with Oregon at #2 being book-ended by Washington at #25.  The median of Pac 12 teams is 16.5, versus a median of 6.5 for the SEC.
• Big 12 added one ranked team to increase their overall number to 5.  The conference does claim one of the spots that matters as Kansas State is the new #1.
• Notre Dame is still on the outside looking in at #3.  They need 1 of the top 2 teams to lose to get in.  Can an early Christmas present be delivered?  Can they themselves finish out undefeated?  All questions that are not so simple to answer – see below for more on this.
• Again we have the Big 10, ACC and Big East each with 2 ranked teams.  Nothing more to say here.

Regarding the 3 remaining undefeated teams.  All 3 have manageable schedules, however this is November.  November has historically not been kind to top 3 teams.  In the BCS era (’98-’11) 16 Top 3 teams lost in the final 3 weeks of the season. 10 of those 16 lost as 10+ point favorites (ESPN Research).  Kansas State, Oregon and ND better strap it on to close out the season like they need to.  Armageddon?  Wouldn’t that be fun to see all 3 lose?  Let’s look at each of their remaining schedules real quick:

• #1 Kansas State – 11/17 at Baylor, 12/1 vs. #15 Texas
• #2 Oregon – 11/17 vs. #13 Stanford, 11/24 at #16 Oregon State
• #3 Notre Dame – 11/17 vs. Wake Forest, 11/24 at #18 USC

Oregon has the toughest finish on paper.  Oh by the way all 3 are favored by 10+ on Saturday.  Good luck. 

Games to Watch:

We have 3 top 25 match-ups this week.  Plenty of great games to watch, but really only one that could have any major effect on the BCS standings.

• #1 Kansas State heads down to Waco for a shootout as the new #1.  Can they handle the hype?  Baylor has a porous run D, which doesn’t bode well against Collin Klein.  I think K State pulls this one off, as they then focus their attention to a slowly improving #15 ranked Texas team in 2 weeks.
• #2 Oregon plays host to #13 Stanford.  Stanford has pulled off a few dream killing upsets in the recent past, but I just think this Oregon O will be too fast for their D.  Oregon wins with a decent margin.
• #18 USC v. #17 UCLA face off in the battle of LA.  Rivalry, rivalry!  Could a loss to UCLA get Kiffin fired, after an already disappointing season (remember they were the AP pre-season #1)?  I think this one will be closer than the talent would indicate.
• If you like Big 10 football, Ohio State vs. Wisconsin will be a fun one to watch.  If Wisky wins they’ll be headed to the Big 10 Championship game.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
11/17/2012	2:05 PM	18	USC	v.	17	UCLA	FOX	USC
	2:30 PM	23	Texas Tech	v.	24	Oklahoma St.	FSN	Oklahoma St.
	2:30 PM		Ohio State	v.		Wisconsin	ABC	Wisconsin
	7:00 PM	1	Kansas St.	v.		Baylor	ESPN	Kansas St.
	7:00 PM	13	Stanford	v.	2	Oregon	ABC	Oregon
Other Notables:
11/17/2012	12:00 PM		Jacksonville St.	v.	6	Florida	ESPN3
	2:30 PM		Sam Houston St.	v.	8	Texas A&M	ESPN3
			Texas				BYE
			TCU				BYE

Enjoy the weekend, but more importantly… make sure you take the time to tell your family/spouse how much they mean to you.  There are much more important things in life than College Football, although it does definitely make it more fun!

Go Gators!

Week 11: Games to Watch

It’s almost the weekend… which means more college football.  Soak it in!  It’ll be over before we know it and the wait for training camp 2013 will begin.

Last weekend wrap-up:

• The rematch of the national championship that everyone had been waiting for definitely lived up to the hype.  It was very close throughout and went down to the very last drive.  AJ McCarron will go down as one of the most revered QBs in Bama’s illustrious history with “The Crimson Drive.”  Yeldon is a beast!  What an incredible finish.
• Oregon was able to defeat USC in “Deflategate.”  Kiffin is a scum bag and adds another distraction to the USC radar.  Does anyone in the country believe that the student manager really did this completely of his own accord?  Either way, USC has dramatically under-performed this year.  The preseason AP #1 now has 3 losses.  On paper one of the most talent rich teams in the country, but Kiffin proves again that he is horrible at developing talent and producing with the X’s and O’s.  Oregon is no joke and would be a fun matchup to watch against Alabama if they can make it through 2 more tough games in their final 3.
• Kansas State continues to be one of the most effective teams on the field, minimizing errors and fundamentally always on their game.  Collin Klein is leading the Heisman talk by all accounts, at this point.  They beat a good offensive team in OK State and have a manageable but yet difficult final 3 to get to Miami.

I went 4-1 on my picks, sitting at 72% for the year.

BCS Standings Update:

• SEC still leading the way with 7 ranked teams, still having 5 of the top 8.
• Big 12 had two ranked teams drop out this week, now standing with 4 ranked.  Who would have thought at the outset of the season that Kansas State would be leading the class of the Big 12 and sitting at #2 in the BCS?
• Pac 12 still with 5 ranked teams, holding out hope for their lone undefeated Oregon at #3.  If Oregon can finish undefeated they should jump Kansas State for the #2 spot and be in the title game in Miami.
• Notre Dame is the independent (no conference affiliation) and back on the national stage this year as they are undefeated and sitting at #4 in the BCS.  However, ND is on the outside looking in for the National Title game as they will need 2 of the other 3 undefeated teams to lose.
• Big 10, ACC, Big East all have 2 ranked teams.  Which of those conferences doesn’t belong?  The Big 10 should be ashamed to be associated with those two weak conferences.

Games to Watch:

We have 3 top 25 match-ups this week.  Plenty of great games to watch, but really only one that could have any major effect on the BCS standings.

• The game of the weekend has to be #15 Texas A&M visiting #1 Alabama in Tuscaloosa.  The new member to the SEC went on the road last week and was able to beat a decent Mississippi State team as they kept State off-balance with their high flying offense and their incredible freshman QB – “Johnny Football” (Johnny Manziel).  Going on the road again to “The Program” of college FB right now is a whole different game than they are used to in their previous conference – the Big 12.  Alabama on the other side is coming off the biggest game of their slate every year (LSU) in which they had to win on a last minute drive – one for the ages.  Will they be able to get back up for another big match-up this weekend?  Nick Satan has a way of keeping his players focused, but this game should be fun as that A&M offense is hitting on all cylinders and the Bama secondary isn’t as great as it has been in years past.  This should be a great game, but in the end I think Bama will find a way to grab the victory at home.  However, if the newcomer (A&M) is able to pull off the upset – that’ll get the “Johnny Football” for Heisman hype going to an all new level.
• #2 Kansas State is on the road this week against a decent TCU team.  TCU is struggling this year as their week-in, week-out competition in the Big 12 is much more difficult than the high-school conference (otherwise known as the MWC).  Gary Patterson is a great coach and will have his boys ready in Fort Worth, but I think Bill Snyder and Collin Klein will be able to get the hard fought victory. NOTE: Collin Klein left the game last weekend with a speculative head injury (concussion).  If he isn’t 100% this weekend, I could see TCU pulling off the upset and ending Kansas State’s miracle run.  Something to keep an eye on.
• #11 Oregon St. v. #14 Stanford in a Pac 12 tilt with the winner having a legitimate shot at the Rose Bowl.
• #21 Mississippi St. v. #7 LSU in a SEC match-up that has two teams coming off deflating defeats this past weekend.  Mettenberger found his stride last week and should be able to lead his team to a bounce-back W at night in Baton Rouge.

Summary of the Games to Watch:

Date	Time (CT)	Rk	Away		Rk	Home	Channel	BMW’s pick
11/10/2012	11:00 AM	24	Northwestern	v.		Michigan	ESPN	Northwestern
	2:00 PM	11	Oregon St.	v.	14	Stanford	FOX	Stanford
	2:30 PM	15	Texas A&M	v.	1	Alabama	CBS	Alabama
	2:30 PM		Penn State	v.	16	Nebraska	ABC	Nebraska
	6:00 PM	2	Kansas St.	v.		TCU	FOX	Kansas St.
	6:00 PM	21	Mississippi St.	v.	7	LSU	ESPN	LSU
Other Notables:
11/10/2012	11:00 AM		Iowa State	v.	17	Texas	LHN
	11:00 AM		Kansas	v.	22	Texas Tech
	11:21 AM		LA-Lafayette	v.	6	Florida	SEC

As always it is great to be a Florida Gator!  Tell me your thoughts on this weekends slate of games and show some spirit – who is your team?  Still optimistic?  Already planning for next season?  Either way, college football is the best sport, wear your team proudly.